Mesoscale Discussion 0004 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022 Areas affected...Parts of northwestern/north central Kansas and south central Nebraska Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 010951Z - 011345Z SUMMARY...A period of heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour is possible this morning, mainly in the 6-10 AM CST time frame. DISCUSSION...As a mid/upper short wave impulse accelerates east-northeast of the southern Rockies, an increasingly divergent upper flow field, coupled with mid-level frontogenetic forcing, appears to be contributing to increasing forcing for ascent and associated precipitation across the high plains of eastern Colorado into northwestern Kansas. Within thermodynamic profiles entirely below freezing, including a low-level intrusion of Arctic air to the lee of the Rockies, this is in the form of snow, and is expected to continue to develop east-northeastward across western/northern Kansas and southern Nebraska this morning. Moisture (including precipitable water on the order of .3-.5 inches) may be somewhat marginal for heavy snow, but cold low-level temperatures may compensate and contribute to higher snow-to-liquid water equivalent precipitation. Near the eastern periphery of the core of coldest low-level air, various model output has suggest that a corridor of enhanced warm advection, aided by a 30 kt northeasterly jet around 850 mb, may augment large-scale ascent and enhance precipitation rates around the 12-15Z time frame, roughly from near Hill City KS into the Hastings NE vicinity. It appears that this may include a period of lift maximizing in the dendritic growth layer, possibly contributing to heavy snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 01/01/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39580030 40599860 40229767 39179870 38849985 39580030
Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 4
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