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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 4


   Mesoscale Discussion 0004
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 AM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of northwestern/north central Kansas and
   south central Nebraska

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 010951Z - 011345Z

   SUMMARY...A period of heavy snow rates in excess of 1 inch per hour
   is possible this morning, mainly in the 6-10 AM CST time frame.

   DISCUSSION...As a mid/upper short wave impulse accelerates
   east-northeast of the southern Rockies, an increasingly divergent
   upper flow field, coupled with mid-level frontogenetic forcing,
   appears to be contributing to increasing forcing for ascent and
   associated precipitation across the high plains of eastern Colorado
   into northwestern Kansas.  Within thermodynamic profiles entirely
   below freezing, including a low-level intrusion of Arctic air to the
   lee of the Rockies, this is in the form of snow, and is expected to
   continue to develop east-northeastward across western/northern
   Kansas and southern Nebraska this morning.

   Moisture (including precipitable water on the order of .3-.5 inches)
   may be somewhat marginal for heavy snow, but cold low-level
   temperatures may compensate and contribute to higher snow-to-liquid
   water equivalent precipitation.  Near the eastern periphery of the
   core of coldest low-level air, various model output has suggest that
   a corridor of enhanced warm advection, aided by a 30 kt
   northeasterly jet around 850 mb, may augment large-scale ascent and
   enhance precipitation rates around the 12-15Z time frame, roughly
   from near Hill City KS into the Hastings NE vicinity.  It appears
   that this may include a period of lift maximizing in the dendritic
   growth layer, possibly contributing to heavy snow rates of 1-2
   inches per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 01/01/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39580030 40599860 40229767 39179870 38849985 39580030