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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 481





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Mesoscale Discussion 481
MD 481 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 0481
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0704 PM CDT Sun May 02 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of far southern NE into northwestern and
   north-central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126...

   Valid 030004Z - 030130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 126
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe/damaging wind threat should focus
   across parts of far southern Nebraska into northwestern and
   north-central Kansas over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently congealed into a line across parts
   of northwestern KS and far southern NE along a surface cold front.
   Current expectations are for this line to surge east-southeastward
   this evening, where MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg, 35-40 kt of deep-layer
   shear, and minimal MLCIN should support continued storm organization
   and intensity in the short term. Isolated large hail will remain a
   concern with any supercell embedded within the line. But, scattered
   severe/damaging winds around 60-75 mph will likely be the main
   severe threat in the next 1-2 hours across northwestern into
   north-central KS given the increasingly linear nature of the
   convection and the favorably mixed boundary layer supporting
   efficient downdraft accelerations.

   ..Gleason.. 05/03/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   39180149 40190067 40149989 39869914 39479906 39139920
               38589968 38480054 38640118 39180149 


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