SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0239 AM CDT SAT APR 28 2012 VALID 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL MONDAY. AT LEAST THE WRN TWO THIRDS OF E-W FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO OK EARLY MONDAY WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX INTO SWRN OK. ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AREA... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING NORTH OF E-W FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM PARTS OF OK INTO KS AND THE MS VALLEY REGION. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST...BUT DEVELOP SLOWLY NEWD DURING THE DAY AS LLJ VEERS AND SHIFTS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NWD AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE PLAINS. THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED TO SFC BASED STORMS. ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX. HOWEVER...A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS WILL BE AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE DRYLINE AND CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM FRONT OVER SERN CO AND SWRN KS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THIS REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND ACTIVITY WOULD SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NWRN OK. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AND DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEY REGIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EJECTING LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE. WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND THE STORMS WILL REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN SUFFICIENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZATION AND A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. HAVE INTRODUCED LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT A PORTION OF THIS AREA MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN A CATEGORICAL RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..DIAL.. 04/28/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.html
Be First to Comment