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SPC MD 1760


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Mesoscale Discussion 1760
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Areas affected...Northwest Texas...central and western
Oklahoma...and far southern Kansas

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 271340Z - 271745Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain and sleet will continue from central
Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle through the remainder of
the morning.

DISCUSSION...Recent mPING reports from central OK and northwest
Texas indicate that freezing rain with embedded pockets of sleet
continue to overspread the region. The recent 12 UTC Norman, OK
sounding reveals a 7-8 C warm nose between 800-700 mb on top of a ~1
km deep sub-freezing level (with a minimum temperature near -6 C).
This thermodynamic profile supports the observed precipitation
trends, and with little change expected in the next few hours,
should continue to favor freezing rain with embedded sleet. The
strong 850-700 mb isentropic ascent that is the primary forcing of
this morning's precipitation is expected to persist into the early
afternoon hours, especially across central OK per recent guidance.
This will also act to reinforce the warm nose aloft and continue to
support freezing rain. Although models do show a signal for surface
temperatures to warm just above freezing by around 18 UTC for
central OK, there is some uncertainty in the temperature forecast
given widespread cloud cover, persistent northerly winds/weak cold
advection at the surface, and only modest warm advection at around
925 mb. As such, confidence in ice accumulations will remain highest
along and west of the I-44 corridor where precipitation along the
mid-level warm front is most likely to overlap with sub-freezing
surface temperatures through the early afternoon. Due to the early
timing of this winter storm, fall foliage remains on most trees,
which when combined with ice accumulation and 10-15 mph surface
winds will increase the potential for widespread power outages
through the day.

..Moore.. 10/27/2020

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35860061 36839954 37339883 37819762 37999674 37679610
            37019568 36269616 35329695 34959710 34199742 33699837
            33339891 33309939 33510018 33840067 34530084 35370079

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