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SPC MD 1761


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Mesoscale Discussion 1761
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1101 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas and far western Missouri

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 271601Z - 271830Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain will be possible through
the late morning hours for east/southeast Kansas and into far
western Missouri.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends show a broad region of
precipitation moving from northern OK into southeast KS and western
MO. Surface temperatures across this area are largely in the upper
20s and low 30s. Aloft, morning regional soundings as well as recent
RAP forecast soundings show a 3-5 C warm nose between 800-700 mb
that is fostering a mixture of freezing rain along with some sleet -
as supported by recent surface observations and mPING reports across
the area. Although most forecast guidance shows temperatures
climbing above freezing by early afternoon, the onset of
precipitation prior to this warm up will allow for at least a couple
hours of light to perhaps moderate freezing rain and sleet.
Temperature trends will be monitored through the day for the
expected warm up, which, if delayed, could result in a prolonged
period of freezing rain.

..Moore.. 10/27/2020

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   39139593 39559556 39739487 39449444 38969425 38609428
            38019436 37369467 37039517 37059559 37089607 37349629
            37939615 38489603 39139593 

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