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SPC MD 50

MD 0050 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTH FL

MD 0050 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Areas affected...north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010312Z - 010515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop
with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line
segment moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern
part of the FL Peninsula.  Surface analysis indicates temperatures
will likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the
lower 60s F ahead of the line segment.  Recent radar trends have
shown a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms
gradually organizes.  The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs
showed a deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak
inversion was noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the
Jacksonville raob.  Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain
modest with 500 J/kg MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL.  It
is possible a slow but slight intensification of the line segment
will occur over the next 1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over
the central Gulf Coast approaches the region.  It is unclear whether
a threat for damaging gusts will develop but the environment will
conditionally support a risk dependent on storm-scale processes. 
The overall severe risk appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a
severe thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Guyer.. 02/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3ra1Nn2

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