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Mesoscale Discussion 0050
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0912 PM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Areas affected...north FL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 010312Z - 010515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated risk for locally damaging winds may develop
with a line segment as it moves across north FL through 1230am EST.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic imagery as of 10pm EST shows a line
segment moving east from the eastern FL Panhandle into the northern
part of the FL Peninsula.  Surface analysis indicates temperatures
will likely hold steady in the upper 60s F with dewpoints in the
lower 60s F ahead of the line segment.  Recent radar trends have
shown a maintenance of higher echo tops as the band of storms
gradually organizes.  The 00z Tallahassee and Jacksonville raobs
showed a deep moist layer from the surface to 700 mb and a weak
inversion was noted above the moist layer around 700 mb per the
Jacksonville raob.  Lapse rates within the lowest 3 km will remain
modest with 500 J/kg MLCAPE objectively analyzed over north FL.  It
is possible a slow but slight intensification of the line segment
will occur over the next 1-2 hours as an upper vorticity maxima over
the central Gulf Coast approaches the region.  It is unclear whether
a threat for damaging gusts will develop but the environment will
conditionally support a risk dependent on storm-scale processes. 
The overall severe risk appears too isolated/marginal to warrant a
severe thunderstorm watch.

..Smith/Guyer.. 02/01/2021

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   30358289 30718167 30008132 29658184 29798308 30358289 

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