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SPC Oct 27, 2020 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z


A conditional risk for a tornado may exist Thursday morning for
adjacent parts of Alabama, Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle in
association with tropical cyclone Zeta.  An isolated threat for
damaging thunderstorm gusts may develop over the Carolinas and
southern Virginia Thursday night.

A fairly complex scenario with relative higher uncertainty is
forecast for the day 3 period over the Southeast into the Carolinas
and VA.  Tropical cyclone Zeta will move from the AL/GA vicinity
west of Atlanta and accelerate rapidly northeastward reaching
Chesapeake Bay by early Thursday evening according to the latest
National Hurricane Center forecast.  The risk for a tornado may
linger during the morning from parts of the FL Panhandle
northeastward into central GA before low-level flow veers as Zeta
becomes increasingly displaced from the region.  Only marginal
instability is expected to penetrate the areas north of the
immediate coastal counties with less-available instability farther
north into southwest GA.  Nonetheless, a conditional risk for a
supercell or two capable of a tornado could continue from the late
Day 2 period into Day 3 across this region.  

By early evening, a mid-level low will open and feature a
strengthening jet (100 kt at 500 mb) moving from northern AL
northeastward across the Carolinas into southeast VA by early Friday
morning.  Significant mid-level height falls (120-180 m at 500 mb)
will overspread central NC Thursday night.  Concurrently, a cold
front is forecast to sweep eastward across the southern Appalachians
with intensifying frontal forcing in lee of the higher terrain. 
Model guidance currently indicates a moist boundary layer will
become conditionally unstable with a cluster or band of storms
potentially developing after dark.  The transport of higher momentum
aloft to the surface could materialize with a risk for damaging

..Smith.. 10/27/2020

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