SPC AC 130030
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN LOWER
MICHIGAN ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible from Lower
Michigan into the Northeast States. Isolated severe cells remain
possible over eastern Colorado into far western Kansas.
...Lower MI into the Northeast...
A fast-moving complex of storms is currently moving into eastern
Lower MI, and is situated along and north of a synoptic boundary
which extends eastward into NY. Low-level lapse rates remain poor
across the entire region, as seen on 00Z soundings. However, the
moist boundary layer has deepened as well, which is eroding
inhibition from below. Given strong midlevel winds near 60 kt and
sufficient elevated instability, a few bows remain possible. In
addition to the threat with the ongoing activity over Lower MI, weak
theta-e advection around 850 mb and a strong westerly low-level jet
may induce additional storms along/north of the boundary this
evening. Damaging gusts or a few hail reports will be possible.
...Eastern CO into western KS...
Isolated cells persist this evening over eastern CO and are
gradually drifting east toward the KS border. 00Z soundings from LBF
and DDC show warm layers aloft which will limit the eastward extent
of the severe risk. For a few hours, localized severe wind or hail
will remain possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion
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