SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Sun Mar 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Florida Peninsula... A large-scale upper trough centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes will move across the eastern states on Monday. The southern portion of this trough will persist over much of the Southeast. A belt of 40-60+ kt mid-level westerly flow is forecast to be in place over much of the FL Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will shift southward across FL through the period. Generally mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will likely be in place ahead of this front. As diurnal heating of this moist airmass occurs, the development of around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE seems probable. The enhanced mid-level flow associated with the southern portion of the upper trough will likely foster 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear and thunderstorm organization. Although low-level convergence along the front should remain limited owing to mostly westerly winds in the boundary layer, any convection that does form may organize into a supercell or small bowing cluster. With cool temperatures aloft and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates, this activity may pose an isolated threat for large hail. Occasional damaging winds may also occur as low-level lapse rates steepen with daytime heating. Overall thunderstorm coverage may remain rather isolated owing to the limited convergence along the cold front. ..Gleason.. 03/12/2023
