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SPC Mar 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


A few severe thunderstorms will be possible today from southern
Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle. Damaging winds appear
to be the main threat.

A deamplifying short-wave trough embedded in a fast southern stream
of flow aloft across the southern U.S. will cross the southeastern
quarter of the country today.  This will occur as a large upper low
over the north-central U.S. at the start of the period shifts into
the Upper Great Lakes region.

At the surface, a cold front -- trailing from a deep/occluding
cyclone over the Upper Great Lakes -- will sweep quickly eastward
across the eastern third of the U.S., reaching the Atlantic Coast,
northern Florida, and the central Gulf of Mexico by the end of the
period.  Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the progression of
this front, including limited severe risk across portions of the
Gulf Coast region -- mainly during the afternoon and early evening.

...Central and eastern Gulf Coast region...
Showers and thunderstorms -- ongoing in the vicinity of the
advancing front -- will likely be affecting areas from southeastern
Louisiana to the southern Appalachians region at the start of the
period.  Though gusty winds may be ongoing locally, in conjunction
with stronger updrafts within the advancing band of convection,
potential for severe-caliber gusts will likely remain
limited/sporadic into the afternoon.  With time, modest
heating/destabilization into the southeastern Alabama/southwestern
Georgia, Florida Panhandle vicinity may permit a few somewhat more
vigorous updrafts to evolve within the advancing convective band. 
This -- given the very strong kinematic environment -- will likely
support a modest uptick in potential for gusty/damaging winds and
possibly a tornado.  This relative peak in severe potential may last
into early evening, though weaker instability -- in part due to
diurnal effects -- farther east suggests that risk will wane
gradually as the front, and associated convective band, progress
across southeastern Georgia and into northern parts of the Florida

..Goss.. 03/17/2023

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