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SPC Mar 17, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Fri Mar 17 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Saturday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough/low will be in place over much of the
central/eastern CONUS on Saturday. This feature will move slowly
eastward through the period. A surface cold front will advance off
the East Coast Saturday morning, and southeastward across the
northern/central FL Peninsula by Saturday evening. Instability is
expected to remain very weak inland over this area, primarily due to
rather poor mid-level lapse rates. Convergence along the front
should also remain weak, as low-level flow will remain veered to
southwesterly. While isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday
morning across parts of north FL, they should diminish in coverage
and intensity through the day as large-scale ascent remains

Still, given modestly enhanced mid-level flow at the southern extent
of the upper trough, some updraft organization appears possible with
convection that can occur over the eastern Gulf of Mexico
along/south of the cold front. A strong thunderstorm or two could
approach the Gulf Coast of the FL Peninsula Friday afternoon, but
weak instability should temper the overall severe threat.

..Gleason.. 03/17/2023

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