SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012 VALID 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE MID-MO VALLEY TO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK... ...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... ONGOING SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS JUST NE OF DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION IN SWRN KS WILL POSE A SHORT-TERM RISK FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ON THE FRINGE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG PER MODIFIED 00Z DDC/TOP RAOBS. WHILE FARTHER S...TSTM CLUSTER ALONG THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND. MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WHILE STRONG CAPPING WILL OVERSPREAD THE FRONTAL ZONE/DRYLINE AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES ROBUST WARM THETA-E ADVECTION NWD IN THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID-MO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED TSTMS JUST AFTER SUNSET...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS NEB/IA AND EVENTUALLY INTO SD/MN. PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG ELEVATED BUOYANCY ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ...NRN NY/VT... TSTMS ALONG THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY HAVE LARGELY FAILED TO DEVELOP INTO THE CONUS. IT STILL IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS COULD BECOME SUSTAINED SWWD TOWARDS THE LEE OF LK ONTARIO IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. BUT WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND THE CURRENT CANADIAN CLUSTER MOVING E OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND LIKELY REMAINING N OF THE BORDER...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. ..GRAMS.. 05/26/2012
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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