MD 0103 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 29… FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0103
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 AM CST Wed Jan 25 2023
Areas affected...parts of southwestern Alabama and the western
Concerning...Tornado Watch 29...
Valid 250807Z - 251000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 29 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado potential is maximized at this time within coastal
counties near and east of Mobile Bay.
DISCUSSION...Examination of radar data over the past hour continues
to reveal small, rotating storms developing over the northern Gulf,
to the east of the frontal convective band. However, as these
northeastward-moving cells move inland, only a very small warm
sector is available, near and south of a warm front that currently
extends from just north of Mobile Bay southeastward to near
Valparaiso and then offshore.
Tornado potential remains confined to this warm sector, with updraft
rotation quickly diminishing/dissipating with northeastward extent
as cells cross the warm front and continue inland atop an
increasingly stable boundary layer. As such, tornado potential
remains confined to coastal counties within the watch. Within these
counties, brief tornadoes remain possible.
Little northward advance of the warm front is occurring, and thus
risk currently remains contained within WW 29. Will will continue
to monitor evolution of surface conditions -- particularly any
northward advance of the warm front inland/onshore east of the watch
-- as it pertains to possible/future WW issuance.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29938804 30548781 30988752 30658652 30348607 29908622