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SPC MD 1816

MD 1816 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO


Mesoscale Discussion 1816
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0711 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern and central Ohio

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 220011Z - 220215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible
with the stronger more organized storms into this evening. It is
unclear if the severe risk will warrant a watch, though trends are
being monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KILN shows isolated convective
development along a pre-frontal confluence zone just north of the
Columbus OH metro area. Ahead of this activity, steep midlevel lapse
rates (sampled by the 18Z special ILN sounding) atop lower 70s
boundary-layer dewpoints are contributing to moderate surface-based
instability. In addition, this convection is evolving eastward along
the periphery of strong midlevel westerly flow, which will continue
to gradually overspread central OH during the next few hours. As a
result, effective shear will continue increasing over the area to
around 30-40 kt, possibly favoring a couple loosely organized
clusters of transient supercell structures. The main concern will be
sporadic large hail and locally damaging gusts where localized
convective clustering occurs. It is unclear if the severe threat
will warrant a watch, though trends are being monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 09/22/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

LAT...LON   40028332 40288326 40548289 40908216 40998132 40868064
            40638054 40298054 39888083 39618104 39518129 39438187
            39518246 39688300 40028332 

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