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SPC MD 1818


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Mesoscale Discussion 1818
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2022

Areas affected...portions of far southwestern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 220338Z - 220515Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple instances of strong wind gusts or large hail may
occur with the more intense storms ahead of the cold front. The
severe threat is expected to remain isolated though and a WW
issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Multiple multicell/supercell storm structures have
materialized over the past hour near the Ontario/New York border,
with 1-inch diameter hail reported in the past half hour in Ontario
per an MPING report. MRMS mosaic radar data shows storm tops
exceeding 40 kft, with MESH approaching 1 inch. The airmass ahead of
these storms is characterized by 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, driven mainly by
upper 60s F dewpoints beneath 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per
the 00Z BUF observed sounding and 03Z mesoanalysis). Modifying the
00Z BUF sounding to reflect current surface temperatures depicts a
stabilizing boundary layer, but with adequate buoyancy above 850 mb
(i.e. 2000 J/kg MUCAPE). Given sizeable curved and elongated
hodographs contributing to 40+ kts of effective bulk shear, some of
the storms may obtain sustained mid-level rotation, and a couple
instances of large hail/damaging gusts are possible. 

Nonetheless, the gradually stabilizing boundary layer has resulted
in an increase of MLCINH, particularly with eastern extent. As such,
the overall severe threat is expected to be isolated and a WW
issuance is not currently anticipated.

..Squitieri/Hart.. 09/22/2022

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42267984 43257882 43377816 43327736 43007674 42697669
            42357692 42137751 42097849 42087947 42267984 

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