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SPC MD 1851

MD 1851 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 548… FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA

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Mesoscale Discussion 1851
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0515 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and Far Southeastern
Virginia

Concerning...Tornado Watch 548...

Valid 302215Z - 302315Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 548 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado threat will continue over the next few hours
across portions of North Carolina. The greatest short-term threat
will be across portions of northeastern North Carolina.

DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of more unstable air is in place
across northeastern North Carolina. In this region, mixed layer CAPE
of around 500-1500 J/kg has been nudged in by southeasterly flow
across the Atlantic. Dew points are in the mid 70s across the region
with low level shear profiles improving over the last few hours.
Further north and west, cool more stable air is in place across the
western portion of the watch, where temperatures and dewpoints are
in the 60s F. Thus, the main tornado threat will likely be more
isolated to a narrow corridor of northeastern North Carolina, where
a more favorable airmass is in place with at least low 70s F
dewpoints. 

The threat may gradually shift northward with time into portions of
southeast Virginia coast this evening.

..Thornton.. 09/30/2022

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35267562 34937643 34917701 35067751 35657824 36097825
            36847751 37407686 37437639 37297579 37187564 36877521
            36567508 36077518 35267562 

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