MD 1958 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR NORTHEASTERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE TUG HILL REGION OF NY
Mesoscale Discussion 1958
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0537 AM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Areas affected...Northeastern shore of Lake Ontario into the Tug
Hill region of NY
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 181137Z - 181730Z
SUMMARY...A lake-effect snow band is expected to persist through the
morning, with snow rates of 2+ inches per hour possible.
DISCUSSION...A lake-effect snow band has gradually coalesced early
this morning across central/northern Lake Ontario into northern
portions of Jefferson County, with backbuilding convective elements
noted along the southwestern flank of this band. Very cold midlevel
temperatures (less than -20 C at 700 mb) atop the relatively warm
lake (water temperatures of around 10 C) will continue to support
favorable instability and the potential for snow rates of 2+ inches
per hour within the band for the rest of this morning.
In the wake of a midlevel shortwave trough now moving across the
region, the primary surface convergence zone may shift slightly
southward with time, bringing the potential for heavy snow rates
into a larger portion of Jefferson County and the Tug Hill region
later this morning into the afternoon.
..Dean.. 11/18/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...BUF...
LAT...LON 44187635 44297578 44337551 44287527 44187519 44107533
43987545 43917571 43827613 43847652 44027662 44187635
