MD 1964 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1964
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0841 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022
Areas affected...portions of far western New York
Valid 190241Z - 190845Z
SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue with the primary snow
band off of Lake Ontario through at least early tonight. Snowfall
rates may exceed 2 inches/hr at times, with near-zero visibility and
dangerous travel conditions likely.
DISCUSSION...While deep-layer flow has become more zonal with the
passage of a surface lee trough, roughly unidirectional vertical
wind profiles remain oriented along a long axis of Lake Ontario.
This deep-layer flow paralleling Lake Ontario supports a deep fetch
of moist, buoyant air, characterized by 8.5 C/km low-level lapse
rates/100 J/kg SBCAPE. As such, convectively driven bursts of snow
are likely to continue within the broader snow band through tonight,
with snowfall rates occasionally exceeding 2 inches/hr, as also
suggested by the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance consensus. The heaviest
snowfall rates may reduce visibility to near zero and promote
overall dangerous travel conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 44117631 44337521 44387464 44307447 44117474 43907530
43827573 43787599 43807626 43927638 44117631