MD 1964 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1964 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0841 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of far western New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190241Z - 190845Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to continue with the primary snow band off of Lake Ontario through at least early tonight. Snowfall rates may exceed 2 inches/hr at times, with near-zero visibility and dangerous travel conditions likely. DISCUSSION...While deep-layer flow has become more zonal with the passage of a surface lee trough, roughly unidirectional vertical wind profiles remain oriented along a long axis of Lake Ontario. This deep-layer flow paralleling Lake Ontario supports a deep fetch of moist, buoyant air, characterized by 8.5 C/km low-level lapse rates/100 J/kg SBCAPE. As such, convectively driven bursts of snow are likely to continue within the broader snow band through tonight, with snowfall rates occasionally exceeding 2 inches/hr, as also suggested by the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance consensus. The heaviest snowfall rates may reduce visibility to near zero and promote overall dangerous travel conditions. ..Squitieri.. 11/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 44117631 44337521 44387464 44307447 44117474 43907530 43827573 43787599 43807626 43927638 44117631