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SPC MD 1965


MD 1965 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 1965
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0915 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022

Areas affected...portions of extreme southwest New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 190315Z - 190715Z

SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow, perhaps briefly exceeding
1 inch/hr, remains possible with a primary snow band this evening,
which is shifting northward towards Buffalo, NY. Areas of heaviest
snow should be confined to about 30 miles inland from Lake Erie.

DISCUSSION...A lingering snow band continues to promote moderate to
heavy snow to areas immediately east of the Lake Erie shoreline. The
approach of a very subtle mid-level impulse, currently over the
Great lakes, is contributing to increased cyclonic upper flow and
slight backing of the vertical wind field, supporting a gradual
northward shift of the snow band. Though deep-layer ascent should
weaken across western NY, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates overspread by
a near-saturated dendritic growth zone should continue to support
moderate to heavy snow across the Buffalo, NY area through at least
early tonight. While there are some indications that this snow band
is weakening, it is not out of the question for occasional heavy
bursts of snow (perhaps briefly exceeding 1 inch/hr rates) to occur
near the Lake Erie shoreline. As such, areas closest to the shore
may experience brief periods of significantly reduced visibility and
hazardous road conditions.

..Squitieri.. 11/19/2022

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   42957905 43167896 43337873 43397840 43357802 43237791
            43047788 42917796 42847815 42777843 42827894 42957905 

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