MD 1965 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1965 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0915 PM CST Fri Nov 18 2022 Areas affected...portions of extreme southwest New York Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 190315Z - 190715Z SUMMARY...Occasional bouts of heavy snow, perhaps briefly exceeding 1 inch/hr, remains possible with a primary snow band this evening, which is shifting northward towards Buffalo, NY. Areas of heaviest snow should be confined to about 30 miles inland from Lake Erie. DISCUSSION...A lingering snow band continues to promote moderate to heavy snow to areas immediately east of the Lake Erie shoreline. The approach of a very subtle mid-level impulse, currently over the Great lakes, is contributing to increased cyclonic upper flow and slight backing of the vertical wind field, supporting a gradual northward shift of the snow band. Though deep-layer ascent should weaken across western NY, 8 C/km low-level lapse rates overspread by a near-saturated dendritic growth zone should continue to support moderate to heavy snow across the Buffalo, NY area through at least early tonight. While there are some indications that this snow band is weakening, it is not out of the question for occasional heavy bursts of snow (perhaps briefly exceeding 1 inch/hr rates) to occur near the Lake Erie shoreline. As such, areas closest to the shore may experience brief periods of significantly reduced visibility and hazardous road conditions. ..Squitieri.. 11/19/2022 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF... LAT...LON 42957905 43167896 43337873 43397840 43357802 43237791 43047788 42917796 42847815 42777843 42827894 42957905