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SPC MD 2160

MD 2160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH CAROLINA

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Mesoscale Discussion 2160
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Georgia into southwest South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 171745Z - 171945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph) are possible this
afternoon as storm coverage and intensity gradually increases. A
watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s F in
southeast Georgia early this afternoon. The boundary layer has
largely become uncapped and showers/thunderstorms have begun to form
within this area of stronger heating with perhaps some additional
support from weak pre-frontal convergence. Into southwestern South
Carolina, temperatures have also warmed into the low 80s behind
early day convection. With additional surface heating, storms should
gradually intensify this afternoon as MLCAPE increases to 1000-1500
J/kg. Enhanced mid-level winds (effective shear of around 30 kts)
from a trough moving through the southeast will help storms
organize. The primary hazard will be isolated damaging wind gusts.
The tornado threat with this activity will be low given the veered
surface winds and consequent weak low-level SRH. Additional storms
along the front will pose a similar threat as they move into the
region, though shear parallel to the boundary will likely mean a
more linear storm mode.

..Wendt/Hart.. 09/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   31428136 31168177 31088221 31008289 31198370 31518382
            31918359 32118298 32428228 32918164 33388096 33398044
            32838035 31908086 31428136 

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