MD 0898 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN TX PANHANDLE…FAR WRN OK…FAR SW KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0898
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0634 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN TX PANHANDLE...FAR WRN OK...FAR SW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252334Z - 260030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK AND SW KS. INCREASING TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE
SUGGESTS PORTIONS A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAS OCCUR INVOF A WWD RETREATING
DRYLINE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.
ADDITIONALLY...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL VORTICITY
MAXIMUM EJECTING NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WHICH IS LIKELY
AIDING IN LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. 23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
MLCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA WITH LITTLE TO
NO CINH REMAINING. HOWEVER...20Z MOBILE SOUNDING FROM TEXAS A&M TEAM
NEAR ALTUS HAD SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING. THEREFORE...THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE ACTIVITY WILL LAST BUT GIVEN THE RECENT
TRENDS A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
..MOSIER/HART.. 05/25/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34100095 33770046 33819972 33889914 34229906 35039911
35899918 36739923 37209918 37249979 37170113 37130126
36890124 36210115 34100095
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0898.html
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