MD 0094 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0094
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Oklahoma into
Valid 241708Z - 242315Z
SUMMARY...Periods of moderate to heavy snow should develop across
portions of central Oklahoma into northwestern Arkansas through the
afternoon. A couple of 1+ inch/hour snowfall rates are possible,
resulting in periods of reduced visibility.
DISCUSSION...Broad and deep moisture advection continues across the
southern Plains as a strengthening mid-level trough and resultant
height falls overspreads the region through the day. Currently,
mostly rain is falling from central OK and points south and east.
However, up to moderate snowfall rates have been reported across
portions of the OKC metropolitan area into western Oklahoma over the
past few hours. Furthermore, 16Z mesoanalysis shows 925 mb
temperatures dropping to at/below freezing across central OK in
tandem with recently reported snow. While surface temperatures are
at/above freezing across central OK, the Oklahoma Mesonet shows a
4-6 F temperature drop around and just south of the OKC metropolitan
area over the last 3 hours.
With temperatures below freezing at/above 850 mb, the cooling
surface-925 mb temperatures suggest that the rain-to-snow transition
should continue across central OK and progress eastward to central
AR by mid afternoon. Rich moisture advection and deep-layer ascent
within the dendritic growth zone (-12 to -17C layer) may support at
least brief bouts of 1+ inch/hr snowfall rates. Latest
high-resolution guidance consensus indicates the best chance for 1+
inch/hr snowfall rates will be around and just to the south and east
of the OKC metropolitan area in the 18-22Z (Noon-4 PM CST) time
frame, with the threat spreading into northwest AR during the 22-00Z
(4-6 PM CST) period.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 35259373 34559481 34059719 33919843 34069901 34299917
34609890 35369777 35759715 36299523 36319417 36169303