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Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0609 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023

Areas affected...northern AR...eastern OK...and southern MO

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 250009Z - 250615Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall rates of 1"/hr or greater are possible in
the next few hours as bands of winter precipitation move northward
through the region.

DISCUSSION...The ejection of a potent upper-level trough is underway
in the southern Plains. Moisture return ahead of this system has
yielded a general winter-weather threat, mostly due to heavy snow,
mainly centered in eastern OK into north-central AR. As the the
system continues to propagate eastward, northeastward translation
and further development of the winter precipitation is expected. The
main driver is isentropic ascent north of a relatively sharp warm
front draped across portions of south-central LA and southern MS.
The rain-snow line is currently located far behind the front
extending from southwest to northeast through central AR. Due to the
overall evolution thus far and short-term guidance, the location of
the rain-snow line is not expected to change very much during the
next few hours.

Within this timeframe, localized maxima in low-level frontogenesis
(within the broad moist advection regime associated with isentropic
ascent) are expected to yield bouts of higher snowfall rates (e.g.,
1-1.5"/hr). The direct impacts to travel and roads may be tempered
in areas that recently transitioned from rain to snow and were
relatively warmer at the surface; however, reduced visibility is
still possible, and quickly accumulating snow is likely in areas at
slightly higher elevation. These bouts of locally higher snowfall
rates are most likely just north of the rain-snow line across
central and northern AR and will generally translate from west to
east during the 00-03z timeframe. Later (03-06z), intermittent heavy
snowfall rates will be possible to the northwest of the surface low
as it propagates through the same general corridor.

..Flournoy/Moore.. 01/25/2023

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   34379465 34589554 35269585 36169552 36649435 36919318
            37079173 37059009 36359001 35699080 35359143 34989237
            34579346 34379465 

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