MD 0099 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28… FOR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0099
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0611 PM CST Tue Jan 24 2023
Areas affected...Southern Louisiana and extreme southwest
Concerning...Tornado Watch 28...
Valid 250011Z - 250215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues.
SUMMARY...Tornado threat will spread east across southern Louisiana
into extreme southwest Mississippi this evening.
DISCUSSION...Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will spread across
the lower MS Valley this evening ahead of an upper low ejecting
across north-central TX. In response to this upper feature, surface
low is now advancing inland across southwest LA, and modified Gulf
air mass has returned across southern LA Parishes. Over the last few
hours, mid 60s surface dew points have advanced to the latitude of
LFT immediately ahead of the forced squall line. Forecast soundings
suggest mid-upper 60s surface dew points are needed for
near-surface-based buoyancy while supercells north of this are most
likely appreciably elevated. Numerous discrete supercells are
evolving within the warm advection zone ahead of the line, and many
of these updrafts are likely elevated. As moisture increases across
southern LA the prospect for near-surface-based updrafts will
increase, along with the threat for tornadoes with these supercells.
Otherwise, embedded supercells remain possible along the advancing
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 29329339 31239199 30739111 28699155 29329339