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SPC Oct 1, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for a tornado or two in lingering showers and thunderstorms
near Mid Atlantic coastal areas is diminishing, but perhaps not yet
completely negligible tonight.

...01Z Update...

...Mid Atlantic...
The inland advection of warmer and seasonably moist boundary-layer
air (emanating from the Gulf Stream) has largely been confined to
beneath the mid-level warm core of Ian, and a plume of warm,
subsiding air (in the 700-500 mb layer) wrapping around its
southern/southeastern periphery.  And the larger, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs have generally been confined to the cool air
preceding this air mass.

Near the surface, Ian is now essentially an occluding extra-tropical
cyclone, which is forecast to slowly continue migrating
north-northwestward across the North Carolina Piedmont and western
North Carolina/Virginia border vicinity through daybreak.  As this
occurs, it appears that the trailing northeastward advancing cool
low-level air will overspread the remainder of northeastern North
Carolina through much of eastern Virginia, before the warm sector
has a chance to advect inland of Virginia/Delmarva coastal areas.

..Kerr.. 10/01/2022

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