SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 PM CDT Fri Sep 30 2022 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a tornado or two in lingering showers and thunderstorms near Mid Atlantic coastal areas is diminishing, but perhaps not yet completely negligible tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Mid Atlantic... The inland advection of warmer and seasonably moist boundary-layer air (emanating from the Gulf Stream) has largely been confined to beneath the mid-level warm core of Ian, and a plume of warm, subsiding air (in the 700-500 mb layer) wrapping around its southern/southeastern periphery. And the larger, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs have generally been confined to the cool air preceding this air mass. Near the surface, Ian is now essentially an occluding extra-tropical cyclone, which is forecast to slowly continue migrating north-northwestward across the North Carolina Piedmont and western North Carolina/Virginia border vicinity through daybreak. As this occurs, it appears that the trailing northeastward advancing cool low-level air will overspread the remainder of northeastern North Carolina through much of eastern Virginia, before the warm sector has a chance to advect inland of Virginia/Delmarva coastal areas. ..Kerr.. 10/01/2022
