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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1751

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Mesoscale Discussion 1751
MD 1751 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1751
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0706 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

   Areas affected...Parts of southwestern into south central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

   Valid 150006Z - 150130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered storms posing a risk for
   severe hail and locally strong wind gusts may linger into the 8-9 PM
   CDT time frame.

   DISCUSSION...A zone of differential surface heating, beneath the
   periphery of the remnants of a plume of elevated mixed-layer air,
   has provide the focus for isolated intense thunderstorm development
   late this afternoon.  With relatively moist easterly low-level flow
   to the cool side of this front contributing to moderately large CAPE
   and strong deep layer shear, a splitting supercell formed to the
   east of Dodge City.  The remnants of this activity have been slowly
   propagating north/northeastward and south-southeastward within
   rather modest (around 20 kt) westerly ambient deep-layer mean flow,
   and may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally strong
   surface gusts for another hour or two.

   ..Kerr.. 09/15/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38279932 38559870 38019755 37419742 37189855 37459930
               37789975 38279932 

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