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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1769

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Mesoscale Discussion 1769
MD 1769 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 20 2021

   Areas affected...far northeast Kansas through northern and central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201915Z - 202115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop over far northeast
   Kansas by 20Z, likely evolving into a line as they continue east
   through northern Missouri into the evening. Locally strong to severe
   wind gusts will be the primary threat, though a few instances of
   hail may also occur in the stronger storms. A severe thunderstorm
   watch might be needed for this region by 20-21Z.

   DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon a cold front extends from western
   IA through northeast KS near Topeka, then farther southwest near
   Wichita. The downstream warm sector has become moderately unstable
   with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE as surface temperatures climb through the
   80s along with upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints. Deeper forcing and
   stronger winds aloft attending a northern-stream shortwave trough
   will remain north of this region. Nevertheless, forcing for ascent
   within frontal zone should become sufficient to initiate storms over
   northeast KS as the boundary layer continues to destabilize and any
   remaining convective inhibition weakens. Vertical wind profiles with
   30-35 kt effective bulk shear will support multicell storm modes,
   with storms likely to eventually evolve into line segments along the
   front. The stronger storms will become capable of producing strong
   to damaging gusts, especially as they continue east through northern
   MO later this afternoon into the evening.

   ..Dial/Hart.. 09/20/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37899444 38349489 39159508 39859494 40399440 40539320
               40399249 39749209 38859236 38229286 37889363 37899444 

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