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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1848

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Mesoscale Discussion 1848
MD 1848 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1848
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0152 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

   Areas affected...Portions of central/south-central KS

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...

   Valid 130652Z - 130815Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524 continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe/damaging winds and a tornado or two
   remain possible with a line of storms moving eastward across
   central/south-central Kansas early this morning.

   DISCUSSION...A robust line of storms is progressing quickly eastward
   around 40-50 kt across central and south-central KS. A measured
   severe wind gust to 71 mph was recently recorded at an OK Mesonet
   site very near the OK/KS border in Woods County OK. Other estimated
   winds around 70-75 mph have been reported with this line in KS. In
   the short term, scattered severe winds will likely remain the threat
   given the linear nature of the ongoing storms and the rather strong
   low-level inflow associated with a 50-60 kt southerly low-level jet.
   But, an embedded tornado or two also remains possible with very
   favorable low-level shear. The line is currently processing the best
   boundary-layer instability over south-central KS, where around
   1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is present. Boundary-layer instability
   weakens fairly quickly into southeastern KS, but low-level
   moistening owing to the ongoing strong low-level warm advection may
   offset this to some extent. With favorable low-level and deep-layer
   shear present across this region, storms will probably be able to
   maintain their intensity for at least a couple more hours.
   Accordingly, Tornado Watch 524 has been locally extended eastward a
   few counties by WFO ICT.

   ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37069897 37739843 38199791 39089773 38719711 38489639
               37039654 37069897 

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