The Day of the Storm

9:30 update – Roads in Jefferson County are drifting over faster than the road crew can clear them. The winds are expected to continue overnight. This will lead to very cold wind chills. Do not travel in the County tonight unless it is absolutely necessary! Below is the final adjusted estimated snowfall amounts for the area. This should be closer to real world measurements.

6:30pm update – Report of 9″ of snow in County. Snow is drifting over roads, road crews are having a difficult time keeping roads open. Do not drive in the County unless absolutely necessary. Here is the latest experimental snowfall graphic. It is still running a little heavy on the amounts.

4:00pm update – Roads are experiencing heavy drifting in the County. Estimating 5″-7″of snow across the County. The snow estimate graphic is showing the proper pattern, but the amounts are inflated. This has to do with the moisture conversion rates being less than normal with this system.

2:15pm update – Travel across the County is starting to get difficult. Estimating around 5″ of snow so far in areas of Jefferson County. Snow is starting to drift and is getting very hard to measure. Here is the 2:00pm snow estimate graphic.

12:30pm update – 12:00pm snow estimate graphic.

11:30am update – Snow continues to fall in Jefferson County. I’m seeing snowfall reports South of the County increasing. It looks like reports are showing the estimate to be  fairly accurate. Below is the 11:00am estimate.

10:30am update – Snowfall is picking up across the County. Visibility is down to under 1/2 mile in areas. Estimated snowfall is 1-2 inches across the County. Below is a updated experimental snowfall graphic. This is a 10:00am estimate.

9:45am update – We are experiencing moderate blowing snow across the County. The heavier snow is still south of the County. Looks like we should start seeing a heavier snow around noon. Below is an experimental snowfall estimate graphic.

8am update – The NWS has updated their official projections.

7am update – The snow has started to fall South of the County. Reports coming out of Oklahoma that areas have 6 inches of snow so far. Expecting the heavier snow to start in Jefferson County between 10am and noon.

High winds and cold temperatures are already here. Expect below zero wind chills and blowing snow this afternoon and evening.

This morning at 06:00, Governor Brownback signed a State Emergency Declaration for Jefferson and other Counties in Kansas that are in the path of this storm. The Declaration was signed due to the freezing precipitation received and heavy snowfall predicted, coupled with strong winds creating blowing and drifting snow and bitterly cold wind chills.

Original 1am post -The day of the “Great Midwest Blizzard of 2011” is upon us now. This post will be used for continuing updates of news about the storm. I will start this off with my final posting of two snowfall models,  a local one and a regional one.

The amounts for Jefferson County have decreased slightly. Yesterday the models were calling for around 11 inches of snow, now the models are calling for 8 to 10 inches.

Timing of the Storm

It seems that the forecast models have for the most part agreed on an amount of snow for Jefferson County. Below is the current graphic from the NWS showing forecast amounts.

We now need to try and figure out the timing element of the storm to allow us to make decisions on how to proceed tomorrow.  Below are two different model runs for 6 am tomorrow morning. Both models show very little accumulation by 6am.

Next, let’s look below at the 9am run and see what they show us. The “NAM” on the left isn’t showing accumulation, but the “GFS” on the right is showing an additional 2 inches of snow for the 3 hour period.

Now moving on to the noon run. The NAM on the left shows heavy snow just getting ready to enter the County and the GFS on the right shows 6 inches already. Basically if you analysis the models it appears that the NAM is showing the system moving slower to the Northeast than the GFS. Now you have to make a judgment on which one is handling this system better. The one thing that really stands out to me is when you compare the 6am to the 9 am NAM it is showing 7 inches of snow falling in one place in Oklahoma. I feel this is excessive and it allows me to have more confidence in the GFS model on the right.

Now we can look at the 3pm models and see where we are at. Basically both models are showing heavy snow in Jefferson County at this point. Now this will lead us to have fairly high confidence that we will see heavy snow by tomorrow afternoon.

This leaves us with a decision to make in each particular situation. Hopefully, with this, I have given you enough information to make that decision.

As a rule, I always plan for the worst and hope for the best.

Doug

Latest Snow Projections For Jefferson County

1:45 pm update – Here is the latest model run. Snowfall amounts keep trending slightly upwards in the area.

1:30 pm update – I have added a closings and cancellations page to the site to track items of interest to the citizens of Jefferson County. Please use the contact form to submit items or you can send me an email if you have it.

I’m currently waiting on the latest model runs to complete and I will post it when it completes. The surface air temperature is staying right around 31 degrees. We have ice starting to accumulate on elevated surfaces. Please use caution outside this afternoon and evening.

10:00 am update – My current thoughts are that we will see this light stuff come and go through out the day today. Tonight, It looks like we will see an off and on dusting of snow until between 3 and 6 am tomorrow where the snow will pick up. We should then see heavy snowfall all day tomorrow ending around midnight with final accumulations in the 11″ range.

To compound the problem of heavy snow, we will see high winds in the 20-25 mph range tomorrow. In addition the temperature will drop overnight creating a very dangerous scenario if you are exposed or stuck out in the storm. There is no way our road crew will be able to keep up with this storm if it follows the current forecast. We will have to focus on clearing for emergencies only. The road department will have to try and dig the County out Wednesday after the snow stops.

7:30 am update – It looks like the freezing drizzle has started in Jefferson County, please be careful. I am posting the updated total accumulation model that shows a little more snow in the County.

This matches fairly well to the weather graphic by the NWS.

12:30 am – Here is the latest snow projections for Tuesday. As you can see the model is a little more realistic.

Total snow for 2FEB2011

In addition it looks like Jefferson County may receive a little more ice on Monday than the initial forecast showed.

NWS Predicting Ice and Snow for Jefferson County

5:30pm update: – Here is the latest total snowfall model.

5:00pm update: – Here is the Tuesday snowfall forecast graphic from the NWS.

3:30 pm update: – The NWS will be issuing a Winter Weather Warning for Jefferson County and all of Northeast Kansas. They will be modifying their snowfall projections soon. They are now projecting around 10″ of snow in Jefferson County by Wednesday.

Original Post 9:30am– It looks like Jefferson County will receive another round of winter weather to start the work week. Below is the current weather story graphic from the NWS.

The NWS also issued a winter storm watch for Jefferson County that will go into effect at midnight tonight and last until 6am on Wednesday.

Monday morning expect a slight glazing of ice in the County and allow for extra time to deal with it. I think we are looking at more of a freezing mist like we saw earlier this winter for Monday with a couple of periods of drizzle. It looks like the make up of this system will allow for periods of time without precipitation in the county. The main system of this storm is expected to develop Tuesday morning and develop into a major storm system.

To give an idea of what we are looking at, here is a segment of one of the model runs for Tuesday. This run shows the classic comma shaped system where there is usually a heavy snow band associated with the part of comma over Kansas.

The system is also expected to produce significant winds Tuesday in the 20-30 mph range which will cause drifting snow.

Pay attention to the weather forecast for the next couple of days (every 3 hours or so) and as always, prepare for the worst case scenario and hope for the best one.

Doug

Messy Forecast to Start Work Week

We have been watching a weather system just off the west coast that should impact Jefferson County starting this Monday the 31st and continue to Wednesday the 2nd.

The models are showing a significant amount of moisture being introduced into the area on Tuesday. Current thoughts are that we may see an icing event on Monday and snow on Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

My greatest concern on this is the potential for high winds on Tuesday night which will lead to drifting snow and wind chills near zero or below zero.

More to follow as this system moves closer to us.

Doug

Website Transition Completed

The website transition from k0sds.com to jf-ks.com has been completed. Jfksem.com is still pointing to this site so all previous links should still work. I will be expanding the content in the future and plan on adding more static pages as time allows. In the mean time check out the area news page and area sports pages that I have built. They are pulling feeds from the local media outlets in and around Jefferson County. Clicking on the article titles will take you to the full article on their host site. I plan on doing the same thing with a national news feed in the near future.

I have also spiced up the layout a bit, hopefully it makes the site a little better to look at. I would rather spend the time I do have to work on this focusing on good relevant content and less on the graphics.

Thank you for your patience while I was making the changes and let me know what you think.

I have created k0sds.com as a separate site to use as more of a personal page where I can post my opinions  and thoughts. My thoughts for this site continues to be more of a factual based awareness tool.

Doug

Water Main Break in RWD#12

It has been reported to me that there is a break in a 6″ waterline in Jefferson County Rural Water District #12. Crews have located the leak and are attempting to repair it. I will pass on more information as it becomes available.

Below is a map of RWD#12 from KRWA.

Weather is a Fickle Beast

Weather is a fickle beast, especially winter weather. When I discuss winter weather with my friends I am always quick to remind them that snow is much harder to predict than rain. On the other hand we don’t place near the significance on rainfall amounts in relation to snow amounts. Most people are satisfied just to know if its going to rain on a certain day and not as concerned with exact rainfall amounts down to the .10 of an inch.

As I tried to allude to in my entry from yesterday, my confidence was not the highest for this event. Every model run seemed to be different, but they all placed snow in Jefferson County. As an Emergency Manager my tendency is always to prepare for the worse case scenario and hope for the best.

In this case we received a dusting to one inch across the County. We can look for a little more of the same today, with the system moving out of our area by tonight. The temperature should bottom out around 10 degrees tonight and warm up in the lower 30’s for most of next week.

The current graphic for today from the NWS is below.

More Snow for Jefferson County

An upper level system is descending down on us from Nebraska that will bring more snow to Jefferson County today and carry over into Sunday Morning. I’m expecting around a 3″ average across the County. The setup on this system is a little tricky. Indications are that the main area of concern in the area will be closer to the St. Joe area. Much like the snowstorm earlier this week the snowfall drop off will be steep. Pay attention to the forecast this afternoon as this system has the potential of shifting and drastically changing the snowfall amounts.

Below is the current snowfall graphic from the NWS. It was issued at 3:30 this morning.

The k0sds blog has been retired…

Retired

Image via Wikipedia

The k0sds blog has been retired… I am working on a concept to provide a flexible, timely information portal targeted to people with interests in and around Jefferson County, Kansas. A large component of this concept involves discover-ability by the major search engines. To be able to do that I need to broaden the focus of this site a bit. I am re-branding the site the JF-KS Situation Room to better reflect the direction this project is going and to facilitate the required changes. This weekend the base address for this site will change to JF-KS.com. The current content will remain, I will end up only expanding it from here.

My hope is to have the transition to JF-KS.com completed with plenty of time left to get weather information out for the snow this weekend.

K0sds.com and jfksem.com will both redirect to this new site, so hopefully all links will still work. I plan on leaving the redirects in place for a while so the web crawlers (search engines) catch all of the changes. After that, who knows.

Doug