Dense Fog Advisory issued August 30 at 8:10AM CDT until August 30 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1253BB126738.DenseFogAdvisory.1253BB12B170KS.TOPNPWTOP.b6cfd8eabc1c6dc4c3a1247db0b5b5ab w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2015-08-30T08:10:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Anderson; Brown; Coffey; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Marshall; Nemaha; Osage; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Dense Fog Advisory Expected Minor Likely SAME 2015-08-30T08:10:00-05:00 2015-08-30T10:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Dense Fog Advisory issued August 30 at 8:10AM CDT until August 30 at 10:00AM CDT by NWS Topeka …DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING. * VISIBILITY…FOG WILL FREQUENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND ONE QUARTER MILE. * IMPACTS…MOTORISTS SHOULD DRIVE WITH CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES AS WELL AS RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING…SLOW DOWN… USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS…AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. WMOHEADER UGC KSZ010>012-022>024-026-036-038>040-054>056-058-059 VTEC /O.EXA.KTOP.FG.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-150830T1500Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Anderson; Brown; Coffey; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Marshall; Nemaha; Osage; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee FIPS6 020003 FIPS6 020013 FIPS6 020031 FIPS6 020045 FIPS6 020059 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020085 FIPS6 020087 FIPS6 020111 FIPS6 020117 FIPS6 020131 FIPS6 020139 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020177 FIPS6 020197 UGC KSZ010 UGC KSZ011 UGC KSZ012 UGC KSZ022 UGC KSZ023 UGC KSZ024 UGC KSZ026 UGC KSZ036 UGC KSZ038 UGC KSZ039 UGC KSZ040 UGC KSZ054 UGC KSZ055 UGC KSZ056 UGC KSZ058 UGC KSZ059

SPC MD 1753

MD 1753 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501… FOR CNTRL/ERN NEB

MD 1753 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501...

VALID 280058Z - 280230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 501
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...INITIAL SUPERCELLS OVER CNTRL NEB ARE WEAKENING AS A
BROADENING/SLOW-MOVING TSTM CLUSTER DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH
E-CNTRL/NERN NEB. RISKS FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND AND A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT OVERALL
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.

DISCUSSION...PREVIOUS RIGHT-MOVER OF A PAIR OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR NEAR THE
CUSTER/DAWSON/BUFFALO COUNTY BORDERS. THIS STORM HAS LIKELY INGESTED
AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
COOLED 6-12 DEG F FROM PEAK HEATING OVER S-CNTRL NEB AND 00Z TOP/OAX
RAOBS SAMPLED SUBSTANTIAL MLCIN. FARTHER N...REMNANT LEFT-MOVER AND
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TYPE DEVELOPMENT IN A W/E-ORIENTED BAND SHOULD
PERSIST INTO LATE EVENING AMID A LLJ STRENGTHENING AOA 50 KT. THE
UEX VWP SAMPLED A QUITE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH GIVEN THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS JET. BUT GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY POOR THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT...OVERALL SEVERE RISK HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND MAY REMAIN
RATHER ISOLATED/MARGINAL THE REST OF THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 08/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42369788 42509870 41789966 41349971 40889941 40709844
            40959674 41179661 41629671 41859703 42369788 

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SPC MD 1752

MD 1752 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL KS

MD 1752 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 272216Z - 280015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL AND A BRIEF TORNADO MAY
ACCOMPANY SCATTERED STORMS REMAINING ALONG THE DRYLINE THROUGH ABOUT
SUNSET.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AS A REMNANT WWD-MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MERGING WITH THE DRYLINE OVER CNTRL KS. WHILE
HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S TO THE W OF
THE DRYLINE IS SUPPORTING MODERATE INSTABILITY...SURFACE TEMPERATES
HAVE COOLED RATHER RAPIDLY WITH PASSAGE OF THIS OUTFLOW IN S-CNTRL
KS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN CONFINED ALONG THE DRYLINE. WITH A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN
MID-LEVEL WLYS PER DDC VWP DATA...CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO
GREATLY ORGANIZE...ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT. BUT WITH A
STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ...A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
N-CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS/GUYER.. 08/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39869864 39949816 39929761 39609738 38079817 37269906
            37339988 38409960 39389913 39869864 

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SPC MD 1750

MD 1750 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEB…EASTERN KS…AND NORTHEAST OK

MD 1750 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND NORTHEAST
OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271036Z - 271300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS EASTERN NEB...EASTERN KS...AND PERHAPS INTO NORTHEAST OK
UNTIL ABOUT MID-MORNING /AROUND 15Z/.  STRONGER/SUSTAINED STORMS
COULD PRODUCE A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL STONES /AT OR GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER/.  OVERALL SPATIOTEMPORAL LIMITATIONS IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A SEVERE TSTM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...DESPITE THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE LIFT ALOFT...THE
DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL NEB SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN
KS...AND ESPECIALLY CONCENTRATED /AT THIS TIME/ FROM FRANKLIN TO
ALLEN COUNTIES KS ARE BEING DRIVEN LARGELY BY LOW-LEVEL WAA. 
ANALYSIS OF WSR-88D VADS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INDICATED
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF NEB/KS HAVE VEERED TO WLY AND WSWLY
SINCE 06Z...WITH STRONG MASS CONVERGENCE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN VICINITY OF A N-S ORIENTED
WARM FRONT AT 850 MB.  OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-50 KT WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING ELEVATED SUPERCELLS.  THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES PER 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR LARGE
HAIL.  INITIAL STORMS MAY HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL
AS EVENTUAL STORM MERGERS/CLUSTERING MAY TEND TO REDUCE THE LARGER
HAIL PRODUCTION.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED SEVERE-HAIL
COVERAGE AND A RELATIVELY SHORTER TEMPORAL EXTENT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS...A SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED.  THE LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO WLY THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AN
EXPECTED EARLY DAY DECREASE IN SPEED.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DIMINISHING TREND IN STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT BY AROUND 15Z...AS THE
PRIMARY SOURCE OF LIFT WEAKENS.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   41809783 41879679 41109628 40109582 39159524 38269489
            37249486 36739502 36519581 36619626 37099657 37969668
            38769688 39959723 40999772 41809783 

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Special Weather Statement issued August 23 at 1:39AM CDT until August 23 at 2:45AM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1253BAA6915C.SpecialWeatherStatement.1253BAA6BAC4KS.TOPSPSTOP.b2f838c8ace6701e38ae5c42a3a97bf9 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2015-08-23T01:39:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Dickinson; Geary; Riley (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Special Weather Statement Expected Minor Observed SAME 2015-08-23T01:39:00-05:00 2015-08-23T02:45:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Special Weather Statement issued August 23 at 1:39AM CDT until August 23 at 2:45AM CDT by NWS Topeka …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GEARY…NORTHEASTERN DICKINSON AND SOUTHERN RILEY COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT… AT 138 AM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MILFORD LAKE…MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… SOUTHWESTERN MANHATTAN…JUNCTION CITY…OGDEN…GRANDVIEW PLAZA… CHAPMAN AND MILFORD LAKE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 287 AND 316. WMOHEADER UGC KSZ022-035-036 VTEC TIME…MOT…LOC 0638Z 276DEG 27KT 3906 9692
Dickinson; Geary; Riley 39.13,-96.99 39.13,-96.96 39.16,-96.96 39.16,-96.48 38.89,-96.52 38.97,-97.02 39.13,-96.99 FIPS6 020041 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020161 UGC KSZ022 UGC KSZ035 UGC KSZ036

SPC MD 1741

MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK

MD 1741 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 230453Z - 230700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
OK. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

DISCUSSION...ALONG//BEHIND A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD
FRONT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 05Z WILL LIKELY
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE/POTENTIALLY
GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN OK. IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH
A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE
OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
OVERNIGHT.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38669914 39149782 39439647 38669586 38049528 36839562
            36969793 38669914 

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Tornado Watch issued August 22 at 9:29PM CDT until August 23 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1253BAA5F134.TornadoWatch.1253BAA65B10KS.TOPWCNTOP.1e09eff3d5bc22523617ae2b18a02464 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2015-08-22T21:29:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Clay; Dickinson; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Morris; Osage; Ottawa; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Tornado Watch Expected Severe Likely SAME TOA 2015-08-22T21:29:00-05:00 2015-08-23T00:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Tornado Watch issued August 22 at 9:29PM CDT until August 23 at 12:00AM CDT by NWS Topeka TORNADO WATCH 499 REMAINS VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS DICKINSON IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CLAY OTTAWA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS JACKSON JEFFERSON POTTAWATOMIE RILEY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ABILENE…ALMA…ALTA VISTA… BENNINGTON…BURLINGAME…CARBONDALE…CLAY CENTER… COUNCIL GROVE…EMPORIA…ESKRIDGE…HARVEYVILLE…HERINGTON… HOLTON…JUNCTION CITY…LAWRENCE…LYNDON…MANHATTAN… MAPLE HILL…MCFARLAND…MCLOUTH…MERIDEN…MINNEAPOLIS… NORTONVILLE…OSAGE CITY…OSKALOOSA…OTTAWA…OVERBROOK… PAXICO…PERRY…ST. MARYS…TOPEKA…VALLEY FALLS… VALLEY FALLS AND WAMEGO. WMOHEADER UGC KSC027-041-045-059-061-085-087-111-127-139-143-149-161-177-197 VTEC /O.CON.KTOP.TO.A.0499.000000T0000Z-150823T0500Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Clay; Dickinson; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Morris; Osage; Ottawa; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020041 FIPS6 020045 FIPS6 020059 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020085 FIPS6 020087 FIPS6 020111 FIPS6 020127 FIPS6 020139 FIPS6 020143 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020177 FIPS6 020197 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC041 UGC KSC045 UGC KSC059 UGC KSC061 UGC KSC085 UGC KSC087 UGC KSC111 UGC KSC127 UGC KSC139 UGC KSC143 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161 UGC KSC177 UGC KSC197

SPC MD 1740

MD 1740 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 499… FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST MO/PORTIONS OF KS

MD 1740 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0849 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA AND NORTHWEST
MO/PORTIONS OF KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

VALID 230149Z - 230345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST NEB INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA...BUT SHOULD
PERSIST/POSSIBLY SPATIALLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS/NEARBY NORTHWEST MO AND POSSIBLY OTHER PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS. TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. A NEW/REPLACEMENT WATCH
IS POSSIBLE /40 PERCENT/ LATER THIS EVENING FOR ADDITIONAL PORTIONS
OF EAST/CENTRAL KS AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO.

DISCUSSION...THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO STABILIZE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA/EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEB IN ASSOCIATION WITH PRIOR
CONVECTION/NOCTURNAL INFLUENCES AHEAD OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE...SOMEWHAT STRONGER
STORMS HAVE PERSISTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO FAR NORTHEAST KS
AS OF 830 PM CDT/130Z...WITH EARLIER SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS/SUPERCELLS
HAVING BEEN OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. CONSIDERABLE WARM-SECTOR
CAPPING/BOUNDARY-LAYER INHIBITION WAS SAMPLED BY THE 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA. AS SUCH...DEEPER CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
DECIDEDLY FOCUSED NEAR THE COLD FRONT WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IS UNLIKELY. A
FRONT-RELATED LINEAR-TYPE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD THUS REMAIN
PREVALENT...PARTICULARLY AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. IN SPITE OF BACKED SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
AND MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTIVE MODE
WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING. EVEN SO...ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST KS IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT
COULD POTENTIALLY EXPAND INTO ADDITIONAL PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
AND POSSIBLY WESTERN MO LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. A NEW /OR
REPLACEMENT/ WATCH IS POSSIBLE BY LATE EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   41689470 41959356 41249298 38999443 37779625 38099840
            39289891 39869665 40809553 41689470 

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 8:59PM CDT until August 22 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1253BAA5D5DC.SevereThunderstormWarning.1253BAA5F774KS.TOPSVRTOP.2c896ab0fbd88e8d26f179a181c3a2e0 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2015-08-22T20:59:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Pottawatomie; Riley (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Severe Thunderstorm Warning Immediate Severe Observed SAME SVR 2015-08-22T20:59:00-05:00 2015-08-22T21:45:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 22 at 8:59PM CDT until August 22 at 9:45PM CDT by NWS Topeka THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS… RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS… * UNTIL 945 PM CDT * AT 858 PM CDT…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER RANDOLPH… MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT…HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… MANHATTAN…WESTMORELAND…BLAINE…RILEY…ONAGA…LEONARDVILLE… OLSBURG…RANDOLPH…WHEATON…KEATS AND TUTTLE CREEK LAKE. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. HAIL…1.00IN WIND…60MPH FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. WMOHEADER UGC KSC149-161 VTEC /O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0168.150823T0159Z-150823T0245Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC 0158Z 299DEG 31KT 3945 9672
Pottawatomie; Riley 39.57,-96.48 39.53,-96.14 39.27,-96.31 39.13,-96.62 39.34,-96.96 39.42,-96.96 39.57,-96.8 39.57,-96.48 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161

SPC MD 1737

MD 1737 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 499… FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

MD 1737 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1737
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL IA TO
NORTHERN KS/NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 499...

VALID 222321Z - 230045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 499 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE MAIN SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/TORNADO POTENTIAL
EXISTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY NORTHEAST KS/FAR
SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK ELSEWHERE WITHIN TORNADO WATCH
499...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z.

DISCUSSION...AN EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
STEADILY MERGE WITH/OVERTAKE CONVECTION NEAR THE LINCOLN/OMAHA NEB
AREAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL IA AS OF 6PM CDT/23Z. SOME
DAMAGING WIND AND A LIMITED HAIL/TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH THE
LINEAR/CLUSTERED CONVECTION ACROSS IA...WHILE THE MAIN
SUPERCELL-RELATED LARGE HAIL/SOME TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST WITH
PRE-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEB AND NEARBY
NORTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST IA/FAR NORTHWEST MO...PRIOR TO THIS
CONVECTION BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE COLD FRONT. SPC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO AN EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING
FROM OMAHA SUGGESTS THAT PRE-FRONTAL MLCAPE IS IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG
RANGE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST
NEB/SOUTHWEST IA...WITH SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WIND PROFILES FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY
TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KS NEAR/POSSIBLY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH NEAR-FRONTAL FOCUSED/INCREASINGLY LINEAR
CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SCENARIO BY MID/LATE-EVENING.

..GUYER.. 08/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39419865 40029845 40519710 42189505 41799303 40609397
            39429473 38699615 39209781 39419865 

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