…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE…WESTERN NEMAHA…EASTERN WASHINGTON…NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES… At 837 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Summerfield to near Olsburg, moving east at 45
…SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…EASTERN WASHINGTON…NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT… At 757 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of Odell to near Clay Center. Movement was east at 40 mph.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CLAY CLOUD REPUBLIC WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 1483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018 Areas affected...Portions of western Iowa...eastern Nebraska... north-central and northeastern Kansas...and far northwestern Missouri. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 201931Z - 202130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts will slowly increase along the front and move east throughout the afternoon/early evening. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for at least portions of the area. DISCUSSION...A cold front trailing into southeastern Colorado from a deepening surface low near SUX will serve as the primary forcing mechanism for thunderstorm development this afternoon over this area. The strong frontal forcing, rather weak shear in the cloud-bearing layer, and veered low-level winds will support a rather quick evolution to a squall line mode, especially along the sharper portion of the front in Nebraska and far northern Kansas, as depicted in multiple convection-allowing model guidance through the morning. The consolidating cold front/narrow cold pool is expected to undercut the squall line, which will limit the overall severe threat. However, a deeply-mixed boundary layer with mixed-layer LCLs of 1600-2200 m and moderate mid-level lapse rates could support damaging wind gusts with the stronger embedded downdrafts that can remain close to the front. Farther west, thunderstorms have developed along and slightly behind the front in eastern Colorado and far western Kansas aided by the southern fringe of an elongated mid-level vorticity maximum. These storms may evolve more as cluster compared to the squall line to the northeast, but rather weak low-to-mid-level shear magnitudes should prevent any long-lived organization with these storms. However, severe wind gusts are possible given the moderate lapse rates and evaporation potential in the deeply-mixed boundary layer as they push east into west-central Kansas through the mid-late afternoon. Overall, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed for at least portions of the MCD area to cover the severe wind threat. ..Coniglio/Hart.. 09/20/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 42339709 42659676 42979613 42949493 42869434 42589379 41889388 40449476 39749536 39199627 38509775 38479883 39559904 40329881 40609866 41089836 42339709
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2NWhAGe
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CLAY CLOUD JACKSON JEWELL MARSHALL
…Strong wind gusts this afternoon… Strong south-southwest winds will affect the region this afternoon. Sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts around 40 to 45 mph will be possible, and locally stronger winds cannot be ruled out. Winds are expected to begin weakening after 5 PM, before strong to locally severe thunderstorms move across
Mesoscale Discussion 1474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 AM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018 Areas affected...South-central...southeast and east-central SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180748Z - 181015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An ongoing cluster of elevated storms moving to the east across south-central South Dakota is expected to have a greater potential to produce a periodic threat for large hail, as it tracks into southeast and east-central South Dakota during the next few hours. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity, then portions of far southwest Minnesota and adjacent northwest Iowa could be affected, as well, toward 7 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...IR imagery indicated cooling cloud tops again with the ongoing eastward-moving SD cluster of storms, located in the south-central part of this state at 0736Z. A progressive midlevel impulse shifting east from western SD/NE combined with warm advection at the apex of the western branch of the central Plains southerly low-level jet has been supporting this somewhat disorganized cluster, as it moved through weaker instability. Although weak forcing aloft will be maintained as the impulse moves east early this morning, this cluster will be advancing into the eastern branch of the Great Plains low-level jet as it veers to westerly by 12Z. This latter evolution in the low-level wind field will eventually limit convergence into this cluster of storms, suggesting a diminishing trend in coverage of stronger storms and potential decrease in activity. Until this trend occurs, this cluster of storms will begin to encounter stronger elevated instability that is present across southeast SD into southwest MN and northwest IA that should promote stronger updrafts in the short term and larger hail at times. ..Peters/Edwards.. 09/18/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43209889 43279946 43779986 44109981 44599938 44719857 44829745 44749614 44319569 43399571 43139599 42989676 43109825 43209889
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2OAoH4c
…The National Weather Service in Topeka, KS has issued a flood warning for the following streams in Kansas… Fancy Creek near Randolph affecting Riley County The National Weather Service in Topeka, KS has issued a * Flood warning for The Fancy Creek near Randolph.
…THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON…NORTHERN CLAY AND MARSHALL COUNTIES… At 657 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the warned area. One to three inches of rain has fallen. Flash flooding is expected to begin shortly.
The National Weather Service in Topeka has issued a * Flash Flood Warning for… Northwestern Riley County in northeastern Kansas… Southeastern Washington County in north central Kansas… Northern Clay County in north central Kansas… Marshall County in northeastern Kansas…