SPC MD 1614

MD 1614 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK

MD 1614 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 050800Z - 051030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE INCREASING FROM
NORTH-CENTRAL INTO CENTRAL KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND SPREAD TO THE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.  POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT ATTAIN
ORGANIZATION...AND CAPABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.  A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE FOR
LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS...WITH THIS POTENTIAL BEING GREATER DUE
TO COLD POOL ENHANCEMENT.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND
IF THERE IS A GREATER INCREASE IN STRONGER STORM COVERAGE...THEN A
WW WOULD BE CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...SINCE 06Z...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND SOMEWHAT WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORM INTENSITIES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS.  THE NW-SE
ORIENTATION OF THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY IS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG A STRENGTHENING NW-SE 850-MB THERMAL
GRADIENT...WHICH ALSO COINCIDES WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CAP
PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.  RECENT TRENDS IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED A SPATIAL EXPANSION OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THIS CLUSTER
OF STORMS...WHILE THE GOES-R OVERSHOOTING TOP PRODUCT IS CONFIRMING
THE PERSISTENT INCREASE IN STRONGER STORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KS. 
IN ADDITION...THE GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING PRODUCT INDICATED RECENT
INCREASES IN COOLING WITH STORMS IN VICINITY OF RICE AND ELLIS
COUNTIES KS.  

THESE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR FURTHER UPSCALE GROWTH...AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE TRACK OF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING CENTRAL
NEB MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY AN
INCREASE IN WAA WITHIN THE TERMINUS OF A STRENGTHENING/VEERING SWLY
LLJ EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL KS TO NORTHEAST OK FROM APPROXIMATELY
09-12Z.  THE SWLY LLJ COUPLED WITH 40-KT NWLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
NEB TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WHILE
STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO KS. 
THIS COMBINED WITH THE SWLY LLJ PROVIDING A FEED OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WHICH EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
CENTRAL OK/KS SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO
THE EARLY MORNING.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39759851 39199735 38339612 37899542 37409500 37059496
            36799523 36719586 36719669 36929742 37389796 38739900
            39489923 39759851 

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SPC MD 1610

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470… FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NEB…WRN/NRN KS

MD 1610 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NEB...WRN/NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

VALID 042029Z - 042230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 470 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERSISTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE WATCH...BUT THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CELLS ACROSS NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MODULATED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS WELL AS
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS/MERGERS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION OF THE
STRONGEST CELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MANIFEST ITSELF IN
RELATIVELY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT SUPERCELLS...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS
MAY STILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT/WEAK WAA IS FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION EAST OF
THE CURRENT WATCH. WHILE SOME MARGINAL HAIL/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
HERE /INCLUDING THE FAIRLY ROBUST-APPEARING BOWING SEGMENT OVER
FRONTIER AND GOSPER COUNTIES IN NEB/...CLOUD DEBRIS/LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40589907 39649731 39259693 38429784 38239998 38720158
            39400208 40330217 40930051 40589907 

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Special Weather Statement issued August 04 at 2:56PM CDT until August 04 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1253B986A910.SpecialWeatherStatement.1253B9933D60KS.TOPSPSTOP.0ce4908cff67dfd77191a8b8b1d919f4 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2015-08-04T14:56:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Clay; Pottawatomie; Riley (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Special Weather Statement Expected Minor Observed SAME 2015-08-04T14:56:00-05:00 2015-08-04T21:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Special Weather Statement issued August 04 at 2:56PM CDT until August 04 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Topeka …SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…NORTHEASTERN CLAY AND NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT… AT 255 PM CDT…DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TUTTLE CREEK LAKE…MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… LEONARDVILLE…OLSBURG…RANDOLPH…GREEN AND TUTTLE CREEK LAKE. WMOHEADER UGC KSZ021>023 VTEC TIME…MOT…LOC 1955Z 148DEG 40KT 3931 9658
Clay; Pottawatomie; Riley 39.28,-96.41 39.23,-96.62 39.43,-97.14 39.51,-97.16 39.51,-96.57 39.28,-96.41 FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 UGC KSZ021 UGC KSZ022 UGC KSZ023

SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA

MD 1596 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
            40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
            39849297 

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SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA

MD 1596 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
            40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
            39849297 

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SPC MD 1595

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

MD 1595 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030706Z - 030930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE UNLIKELY. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING FROM NEAR MFD TO N OF LAF MOVING SWD AROUND 30 KT.
SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA SAMPLING THIS LINE SUGGEST THAT ITS
ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY LIES AHEAD OF THE PARENT
CONVECTION. WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING GENERALLY SQUALL-LINE-PARALLEL
LOW/MID-LEVEL MEAN FLOW...THE IMPLIED ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS IT SPREADS SWD.

NEVERTHELESS...A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW -- REF
00Z ILX RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 13.0-13.5 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO --
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ATOP THE
ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. DESPITE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
PBL...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /AROUND -65C/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ARE BEING MAINTAINED.
THIS IS IN PROXIMITY TO A PLUME OF 1.00-1.50-INCH PW EXTENDING NEWD
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PER GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS
FACILITATING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...A CONTINUED SWD SAG OF THE ONGOING
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING -- REACHING
COLUMBUS OHIO TO INDIANAPOLIS IN THE 0815Z-0930Z TIME FRAME.

ULTIMATELY...CONTINUING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CONVECTION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS LACKING...BASED UPON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ILN AND IND VWPS SAMPLED 30-40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT COULD AID IN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE LIMA
OHIO ASOS RECENTLY REPORTING A 50-KT WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THE
GROWING MLCINH AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED STRONG-WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39678729 40238666 40458417 40478301 40038280 39508302
            39258467 39118684 39678729 

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SPC MD 1594

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

MD 1594 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030550Z - 030815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINGERING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO. WW 464 WAS PREVIOUSLY
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT ATOP RESIDUAL OUTFLOW -- DEPOSITED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL 
MO -- IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NODAWAY
COUNTY TO MERCER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY FLUXES OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM LOCATIONS SW OF THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY -- E.G. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN NERN KS. WITH THE EARLIER 00Z TOP RAOB
SAMPLING MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.8 C PER KM
IN THE H7-H5 LAYER/ THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT TERM AS TSTMS SLOWLY ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD. HOWEVER...WITH
THE EAX VWP SUGGESTING OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF WAA...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AS IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS NOCTURNAL MLCINH GROWS. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

LAT...LON   39609416 40119497 40379519 40489492 40479357 39839298
            39509347 39609416 

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SPC MD 1591

MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

MD 1591 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 022322Z - 030015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...ALONG A
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER-80S TO
LOW-90S F WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-T0-MID 70S F.
THIS...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED TO
YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF
CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE-COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES. 

HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...AND THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND LOWER SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH /ACROSS MISSOURI/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THERE
MAY ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
A SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   41169762 41509674 41799335 41619202 40909148 40129165
            39879332 39889541 40339703 40629771 41169762 

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SPC MD 1582

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN…ERN ND

MD 1582 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021116Z - 021345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.
CLOUD-TOP COOLING IMPLIED BY IR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WWD
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHERE A FEED OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE W. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AMIDST MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
OCCUR...AIDED BY AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE MVX VWP.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY DISPLACED ESEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER AND POINTS EWD...THE SVR-HAIL RISK
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46999736 47489548 46819449 45919539 46119687 46999736 

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SPC MD 1566

MD 1566 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459… FOR NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB…SRN IA…NRN MO AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

MD 1566 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL. 

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1gkHOxY