SPC MD 1716

MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500… FOR SOUTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST MO

MD 1716 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1716
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500...

Valid 150032Z - 150200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps
marginally severe hail continues across southeast KS. While storms
will eventually move into southwest MO, a weakening trend is
expected later this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area.

DISCUSSION...Multiple potentially severe bowing segments have
evolved across southeast KS over the last 1-2 hours. With moderate
instability and relatively strong low-level flow and effective shear
in place, these features will continue to pose a threat of damaging
wind and localized hail for the next 1-2 hours as they move into
southeast KS and west-central MO. The strongest of the bowing
segments is likely to move east-northeast into Tornado Watch 501,
while the trailing segments will eventually impact the remainder of
southeast KS into southwest MO. 

A strong cold front is approaching the southeast KS from the north
and will overtake the strongest convection by mid-evening. With the
strongest large-scale ascent moving northeast away from the region
and weaker moisture and instability with eastward extent (as noted
in 00Z SGF sounding), a weakening trend is expected with time as
convection becomes increasingly undercut over southwest MO. Some
local extension of the WW 500 may be required in the short term
across southwest MO, but at this time new watch issuance is
unlikely.

..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   37059759 37499764 37889687 38199602 38409533 38519489
            38499468 38229439 37989368 37139379 37059759 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2gaUppj

SPC MD 1712

MD 1712 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 1712 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Areas affected...Central into northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 141940Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to form by 21-22Z over parts of
central Kansas, with increasing coverage by late afternoon and
evening into eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...Visible imagery shows CU beginning to form along a
pre-frontal trough across central KS where a narrow plume of strong
heating persists. This area of heating lies just north of an
extensive midlevel moist plume extending from the TX Panhandle into
northeastern KS, also coincident with the western fringe of a 40 kt
low-level jet and acting as an effective warm front. Showers are
also beginning to consolidate into more intense cores within this
moist plume. 

As the cold front continues to develop southeastward, storms should
form along it, and also invigorate the leading storms currently
extending from near Wichita to Kansas City. Initially, supercells
are possible, with long hodographs favoring damaging hail and winds.
As the front deepens with time, storms will consolidate into a
squall line, with strong shear oriented parallel to the boundary
possibly resulting in a QLCS.

..Jewell/Hart.. 10/14/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38869766 39149703 39479614 39669516 39639494 39459478
            39209466 38899467 38599474 38339513 38109570 37599677
            37229744 37059797 37059865 37139892 37309901 37579911
            37809908 38159895 38259864 38649798 38869766 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2xGhkns

SPC MD 1709

MD 1709 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499… FOR SOUTHEAST KS…NORTHEAST OK

MD 1709 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1709
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0954 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2017

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Northeast OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499...

Valid 100254Z - 100400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499
continues.

SUMMARY...WW will not be reissued.

DISCUSSION...While scattered thunderstorms continue along the
frontal zone from southeast KS into portions of north-central TX,
Updrafts have struggled to produce hail in excess of 1" for much of
the evening. Large-scale forcing will spread across the southern
Plains overnight and should contribute to additional thunderstorm
activity along the boundary extending south into north TX. Even so,
buoyancy appears inadequate for organized severe.

..Darrow.. 10/10/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35249671 38119726 38129486 35269441 35249671 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2fXGH8R