SPC MD 800

MD 0800 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 193…194… FOR SOUTHERN/CENTRAL KANSAS…NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA…EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE…FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO…FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

MD 0800 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0800
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Southern/central Kansas...northwest
Oklahoma...eastern Oklahoma Panhandle...far southeast Colorado...far
northeast Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193...194...

Valid 200441Z - 200645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 193, 194
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watches
0193 and 0194, but a slow downward trend in convective intensity is
expected during the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...An organized MCS is propagating southeast across Severe
Thunderstorm Watches 0193 and 0194, with severe wind gusts over 60
knots observed within the strongest portion of the line from Gray to
Pawnee Counties within the last hour. Gusts up to 65 knots were also
recently observed in Seward County, Kansas.

With a strong surge of the cold pool in progress, along with
adequate effective bulk shear oriented normal to the MCS leading
line, a few more instances of damaging wind gusts are possible
within the next few hours. Still, recent RAP point forecast
soundings indicate a stabilizing boundary layer, and a downward
trend in intense cores along the leading line of the MCS were noted
near DDC in the latest few radar scans. As such, a slow downward
trend in severity is likely as the MCS slowly weakens throughout the
evening.

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36390155 36750186 37040244 37350293 37750298 38300287
            38310224 37910153 37710108 37930039 38209999 38409940
            38909937 39239919 39579849 39679803 39419742 39209701
            38999654 38559631 38229631 37959659 37519710 37099769
            36649825 36229886 35909940 35910023 36010108 36390155 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1Ko3Fxb

SPC MD 799

MD 0799 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192… FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN KANSAS…OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

MD 0799 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0799
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Much of central/western Kansas...Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...

Valid 200233Z - 200430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across much of Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0192. An additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
downstream within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Earlier multicell clusters/transient supercells have
grown upscale into an MCS with two primary linear segments. One
segment is currently propagating east into northeast Kansas, with
the other segment moving southeast across southwest Kansas. Within
the last two hours, multiple reports of marginal severe wind gusts
have been received in association with both linear segments,
suggesting that damaging winds have become the predominant threat.
With effective bulk shear vectors oriented roughly perpendicular to
the linear segments, the MCS is expected to remain organized, with a
damaging wind threat continuing.

Large hail remains a concern for a supercell located in Texas
County, Oklahoma. Given adequate effective bulk shear/buoyancy and
0-3km helicity greater than 250 m2/s2, the severe hail threat may
continue for at least a few more hours.

As such, an additional Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed
downstream within the next hour.

..Squitieri/Jirak/Guyer.. 06/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...
PUB...

LAT...LON   37870263 38240236 39250128 39650010 39579899 39949817
            40479707 40339656 39779657 39019689 38279750 37679828
            37079890 36679957 36570041 36650132 36770201 37870263 

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SPC MD 796

MD 0796 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 192… FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…NORTHERN AND WESTERN KANSAS

MD 0796 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0796
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0612 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Areas affected...Southern Nebraska...northern and western Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192...

Valid 192312Z - 200115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 192
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch
0192. Large hail will likely be the main threat along with isolated
damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters are in progress across much of the
area under Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0192. Stronger effective bulk
shear values are present in western Kansas, where occasional
supercell structures have been observed. Deep-layer and low-level
shear decrease with eastward extent, suggesting that storms will
remain multicellular and outflow dominant in eastern portions of the
watch and perhaps points east. 

CAPE of 500+ J/Kg in the -10 to -30 C layer suggests that large hail
will remain a concern, while a relatively well-mixed boundary layer
should promote strong evaporative cooling with an associated risk
for isolated damaging wind gusts with the more intense storms.

..Squitieri/Jirak.. 06/19/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

LAT...LON   37090203 37710198 38540184 39510140 40390027 41189950
            41509794 41369688 41229652 40849625 40459620 40089637
            39659723 39509780 39079836 38949864 38439970 37710059
            37200098 36920133 37090203 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2MImd30

Flash Flood Warning issued June 18 at 7:06PM CDT until June 18 at 9:15PM CDT by NWS

…THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 PM CDT FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY…NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE…NORTHWESTERN NEMAHA AND MARSHALL COUNTIES… At 702 PM CDT, rain continues to diminish in coverage and intensity across the warning area. Flooding has been reported across the area, including locations around the Marysville area, and may continue