SPC MD 43

MD 0043 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWESTERN MO…SOUTHERN IA

MD 0043 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0120 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Areas affected...northeast KS...northwestern MO...southern IA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 221920Z - 222245Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain rates approaching 0.05 inch per hour are
possible beginning early this afternoon and spreading from west to
east from northeast KS into southeast IA.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis places a cold front from east-central
KS northeast through the Kansas City metro.  Temperatures are
falling into the upper 20s to near 30 degrees F behind the front.  A
mid-level trough located over the central High Plains this afternoon
will continue to pivot east towards the region and large-scale
forcing for ascent will gradually increase in the vicinity of the
frontal zone this afternoon.  Forecast soundings show a warm nose
with temperatures above freezing around 800 mb atop a 1 km deep
layer at or below freezing---indicative of freezing rain as the
favored precipitation type before transitioning to sleet over KS and
MO later this afternoon.  The latest ECMWF guidance suggests
freezing rain rates near 0.05 inch per 3 hours will become
increasingly common by late afternoon.

..Smith.. 01/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38699674 39939603 40939393 41349229 41059149 40619149
            40459228 40339368 39959472 39139568 38609612 38699674 

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