Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 25 at 11:00PM CDT until May 26 at 4:00AM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1255FCFE3BC0.SevereThunderstormWatch.1255FCFEFF10KS.WNSWOU2.1629c25f6f671f8fa7cb9538eabc5858 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2016-05-25T23:00:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Anderson; Atchison; Brown; Clay; Coffey; Dickinson; Doniphan; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnson; Leavenworth; Linn; Lyon; Marshall; Miami; Morris; Nemaha; Pottawatomie; Republic; Riley; Wabaunsee; Washington; Wyandotte (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Severe Thunderstorm Watch Expected Severe Likely SAME SVA 2016-05-25T23:00:00-05:00 2016-05-26T04:00:00-05:00 NWS Storm Prediction Center (Storm Prediction Center – Norman, Oklahoma) Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 25 at 11:00PM CDT until May 26 at 4:00AM CDT by NWS Storm Prediction Center SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 212 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON ATCHISON BROWN CLAY COFFEY DICKINSON DONIPHAN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MARSHALL MIAMI MORRIS NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE WMOHEADER UGC KSC003-005-013-027-031-041-043-061-085-087-091-103-107-111-117-121-127-131-149-157-161-197-201-209 VTEC /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0212.160526T0400Z-160526T0900Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Anderson; Atchison; Brown; Clay; Coffey; Dickinson; Doniphan; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Johnson; Leavenworth; Linn; Lyon; Marshall; Miami; Morris; Nemaha; Pottawatomie; Republic; Riley; Wabaunsee; Washington; Wyandotte FIPS6 020003 FIPS6 020005 FIPS6 020013 FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020031 FIPS6 020041 FIPS6 020043 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020085 FIPS6 020087 FIPS6 020091 FIPS6 020103 FIPS6 020107 FIPS6 020111 FIPS6 020117 FIPS6 020121 FIPS6 020127 FIPS6 020131 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020157 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020197 FIPS6 020201 FIPS6 020209 UGC KSC003 UGC KSC005 UGC KSC013 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC031 UGC KSC041 UGC KSC043 UGC KSC061 UGC KSC085 UGC KSC087 UGC KSC091 UGC KSC103 UGC KSC107 UGC KSC111 UGC KSC117 UGC KSC121 UGC KSC127 UGC KSC131 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC157 UGC KSC161 UGC KSC197 UGC KSC201 UGC KSC209

SPC MD 734

MD 0734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS…NRN OK…WRN MO.

MD 0734 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN OK...WRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 260307Z - 260430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EXTENDED WW 210 CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS NRN OK AND
CENTRAL/ERN KS UNTIL 04Z.  TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO WITH SUPERCELLS IN NERN KS AND NRN OK SECTIONS OF THIS WW. 
ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED SOON FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
KS AND WRN MO.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS ALFALFA/GARFIELD/GRANT COUNTIES OK.  INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF
THIS STORM MAY ALLOW IT TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...GIVEN
LLJ-EXPANDED 0-2-KM HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW. 
STRENGTHENING MLCINH EVENTUALLY WILL OVERCOME FORCED ASCENT FROM
LOW/MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...BUT UNTIL THEN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST.

NEAR AND NE OF EXISTING/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL...LOCATED IN WABAUNSEE
COUNTY KS AS OF 03Z...PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO.  FETCH OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA...MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL PERSIST IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING/PEAKING SWLY LLJ...PER VWP DATA AND FCST
SOUNDINGS.  2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD PERSIST AMIDST ONLY SLOWLY
INCREASING MLCINH WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36189717 36209800 36439828 36789818 37359764 38109751
            38719721 39059663 39669583 40099480 39239414 38469433
            37999500 37529592 37129657 36709700 36189717 

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Tornado Watch issued May 25 at 8:56PM CDT until May 25 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1255FCFDDC70.TornadoWatch.1255FCFE3BC0KS.TOPWCNTOP.dcc9788687bbee6fa7c5c27f8b02fca1 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2016-05-25T20:56:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Clay; Cloud; Dickinson; Geary; Lyon; Morris; Ottawa; Pottawatomie; Riley; Wabaunsee (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Tornado Watch Expected Severe Likely SAME TOA 2016-05-25T20:56:00-05:00 2016-05-25T23:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Tornado Watch issued May 25 at 8:56PM CDT until May 25 at 11:00PM CDT by NWS Topeka TORNADO WATCH 210…PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING…IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 10 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS DICKINSON IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS GEARY LYON MORRIS WABAUNSEE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CLAY CLOUD OTTAWA IN NORTHEAST KANSAS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ABILENE…ALMA…ALTA VISTA… BENNINGTON…CLAY CENTER…CONCORDIA…COUNCIL GROVE…EMPORIA… ESKRIDGE…HARVEYVILLE…HERINGTON…JUNCTION CITY…MANHATTAN… MAPLE HILL…MCFARLAND…MINNEAPOLIS…PAXICO… ST. MARYS AND WAMEGO. WMOHEADER UGC KSC027-029-041-061-111-127-143-149-161-197 VTEC /O.EXT.KTOP.TO.A.0210.000000T0000Z-160526T0400Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Clay; Cloud; Dickinson; Geary; Lyon; Morris; Ottawa; Pottawatomie; Riley; Wabaunsee FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020029 FIPS6 020041 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020111 FIPS6 020127 FIPS6 020143 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020197 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC029 UGC KSC041 UGC KSC061 UGC KSC111 UGC KSC127 UGC KSC143 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161 UGC KSC197

Tornado Watch issued May 25 at 5:40PM CDT until May 25 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1255FCF1C840.TornadoWatch.1255FCFDEDA0KS.TOPWCNTOP.58512463ac098645c1b40cc0be7e8c48 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2016-05-25T17:40:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Clay; Cloud; Pottawatomie; Riley (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Tornado Watch Expected Severe Likely SAME TOA 2016-05-25T17:40:00-05:00 2016-05-25T21:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Tornado Watch issued May 25 at 5:40PM CDT until May 25 at 9:00PM CDT by NWS Topeka THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 210 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CLAY CLOUD IN NORTHEAST KANSAS POTTAWATOMIE RILEY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…CLAY CENTER…CONCORDIA… MANHATTAN…ST. MARYS AND WAMEGO. WMOHEADER UGC KSC027-029-149-161 VTEC /O.EXA.KTOP.TO.A.0210.000000T0000Z-160526T0200Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Clay; Cloud; Pottawatomie; Riley FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020029 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC029 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161

SPC MD 726

MD 0726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

MD 0726 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36459752 37769766 38399808 38939735 38769628 37949590
            36779669 36459752 

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 24 at 11:41PM CDT until May 25 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1255FCEF0984.SevereThunderstormWatch.1255FCEFE3E0KS.TOPWCNTOP.af8d9a51be48c5dfda1cd53c01ce45af w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2016-05-24T23:41:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Anderson; Brown; Clay; Coffey; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Marshall; Morris; Nemaha; Osage; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee; Washington (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Severe Thunderstorm Watch Expected Severe Likely SAME SVA 2016-05-24T23:41:00-05:00 2016-05-25T05:00:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued May 24 at 11:41PM CDT until May 25 at 5:00AM CDT by NWS Topeka SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 208 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 5 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN KANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 19 COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS ANDERSON COFFEY DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY LYON MORRIS OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS CLAY WASHINGTON IN NORTHEAST KANSAS BROWN JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL NEMAHA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF…ALMA…ALTA VISTA…BLUE RAPIDS… BURLINGAME…BURLINGTON…CARBONDALE…CLAY CENTER…CLIFTON… COUNCIL GROVE…EMPORIA…ESKRIDGE…FRANKFORT…GARNETT… GRANTVILLE…GREENLEAF…HANOVER…HARVEYVILLE…HIAWATHA… HOLTON…HORTON…JUNCTION CITY…LAWRENCE…LEBO…LINN… LYNDON…MANHATTAN…MAPLE HILL…MARYSVILLE…MCFARLAND… MCLOUTH…MERIDEN…NORTONVILLE…OSAGE CITY…OSKALOOSA… OTTAWA…OVERBROOK…PAXICO…PERRY…SABETHA…SENECA… ST. MARYS…TOPEKA…VALLEY FALLS…WAMEGO AND WASHINGTON. WMOHEADER UGC KSC003-013-027-031-045-059-061-085-087-111-117-127-131-139-149-161-177-197-201 VTEC /O.CON.KTOP.SV.A.0208.000000T0000Z-160525T1000Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC
Anderson; Brown; Clay; Coffey; Douglas; Franklin; Geary; Jackson; Jefferson; Lyon; Marshall; Morris; Nemaha; Osage; Pottawatomie; Riley; Shawnee; Wabaunsee; Washington FIPS6 020003 FIPS6 020013 FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020031 FIPS6 020045 FIPS6 020059 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020085 FIPS6 020087 FIPS6 020111 FIPS6 020117 FIPS6 020127 FIPS6 020131 FIPS6 020139 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020177 FIPS6 020197 FIPS6 020201 UGC KSC003 UGC KSC013 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC031 UGC KSC045 UGC KSC059 UGC KSC061 UGC KSC085 UGC KSC087 UGC KSC111 UGC KSC117 UGC KSC127 UGC KSC131 UGC KSC139 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161 UGC KSC177 UGC KSC197 UGC KSC201

Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 24 at 10:55PM CDT until May 24 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS

NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-KS1255FCEEE7EC.SevereThunderstormWarning.1255FCEF0B14KS.TOPSVRTOP.023c047d7373d7601e27889ae6239127 w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov 2016-05-24T22:55:00-05:00 Actual Alert Public Alert for Clay; Dickinson; Geary; Morris; Pottawatomie; Riley; Wabaunsee (Kansas) Issued by the National Weather Service Met Severe Thunderstorm Warning Immediate Severe Observed SAME SVR 2016-05-24T22:55:00-05:00 2016-05-24T23:45:00-05:00 NWS Topeka (Northeastern Kansas) Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 24 at 10:55PM CDT until May 24 at 11:45PM CDT by NWS Topeka THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR… WEST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS… NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS… GEARY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS… CLAY COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS… RILEY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS… DICKINSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS… WESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN KANSAS… * UNTIL 1145 PM CDT * AT 1054 PM CDT…A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NORTH OF CLAY CENTER…SOUTH THROUGH CHAPMAN…MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD…60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE…RADAR INDICATED. THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 60 TO 67 MPH WIND GUSTS. IMPACT…EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS…SIDING…AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE… MANHATTAN…JUNCTION CITY…ABILENE…CLAY CENTER…WESTMORELAND… BLAINE…OGDEN…GRANDVIEW PLAZA…CHAPMAN…WAKEFIELD…RILEY… ENTERPRISE…ST. GEORGE…WHITE CITY…MILFORD…LEONARDVILLE…ALTA VISTA…DWIGHT…OLSBURG AND WOODBINE. THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 270 AND 320. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL KANSAS. HAIL…0.88IN WIND…60MPH FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. WMOHEADER UGC KSC027-041-061-127-149-161-197 VTEC /O.NEW.KTOP.SV.W.0121.160525T0355Z-160525T0445Z/ TIME…MOT…LOC 0354Z 249DEG 42KT 3896 9700
Clay; Dickinson; Geary; Morris; Pottawatomie; Riley; Wabaunsee 39.56,-96.37 38.78,-96.45 38.67,-97.32 39.15,-97.3 39.56,-97.13 39.56,-96.37 FIPS6 020027 FIPS6 020041 FIPS6 020061 FIPS6 020127 FIPS6 020149 FIPS6 020161 FIPS6 020197 UGC KSC027 UGC KSC041 UGC KSC061 UGC KSC127 UGC KSC149 UGC KSC161 UGC KSC197

SPC MD 719

MD 0719 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 207… FOR CNTRL/ERN KS…FAR SERN NEB…FAR NWRN MO

MD 0719 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0719
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0949 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...FAR SERN NEB...FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 207...

VALID 250249Z - 250415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 207 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT WITHIN TORNADO WATCH 207
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. MEANWHILE...A NEW
SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON FOR PARTS OF ERN KS...FAR
SERN NEB AND FAR NWRN MO TO ACCOUNT FOR AN INCREASING WIND THREAT
FROM THE ORGANIZING MCS OVER CNTRL KS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWLY ORGANIZING
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER CNTRL KS. THE HIGHEST TORNADO THREAT REMAINS
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE RELATIVELY MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR IS ADVECTING NWD WITHIN AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
JET. MEANWHILE...THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG-WIND
THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH TIME...AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD E
OF TORNADO WATCH 207. A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED SOON
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

..ROGERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   40019442 38839410 37569497 37299626 37119763 37139865
            38239914 39619917 40359775 40339576 40019442 

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SPC MD 718

MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL…NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

MD 0718 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0718
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0939 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL...NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 250239Z - 250445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
SUSTAINED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST OK
THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS
SEVERE-WEATHER COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL
OK MCS EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF FSM WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST HUGHES
COUNTY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN LINCOLN TO ALFALFA
COUNTIES.  GIVEN COOLING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CENTRAL
OK...MODIFIED 00Z OUN SOUNDING SUGGESTS THE RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL OK COUNTIES OF OKLAHOMA...CLEVELAND...AND
POTTAWATOMIE IS LIKELY ELEVATED.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES /9 C/KM PER THE 00Z OUN SOUNDING/ COMBINED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LLJ MAINTAINING AN INFLOW OF MODERATELY
STRONG INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J PER KG/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
40-45 KT FAVORS LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.  THIS ENVIRONMENT
IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID STORM INTENSIFICATION AS DEPICTED BY
THE TRENDS IN RADAR IMAGERY AND STRONG COOLING CLOUD TOPS WITH THE
INITIAL ELEVATED STORMS.  AS THE CURRENT STORMS MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST...THEY WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /ABOVE A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NORTHEAST
EXTENT/.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON   34549649 35549761 36099801 36559802 36749759 36939703
            36679620 36269589 35949577 35559560 35099559 34539620
            34549649 

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SPC MD 710

MD 0710 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK

MD 0710 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0505 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR/FAR WESTERN TN/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 242205Z - 250030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY /FAR SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR/ AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY /NORTHERN INTO CENTRAL AR/ OF THE ORGANIZED
EASTWARD-MOVING MCS WHICH ENCOMPASSES SOUTHEAST MO TO NORTHERN AR. 
PORTIONS OF THIS AREA FROM CENTRAL AR INTO FAR EASTERN OK MAY NEED
AN UPGRADE TO GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND A SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORY.   WW ISSUANCE IS BEING CONSIDERED.

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN MCS WITH AN EMBEDDED MCV
TRACKING TO THE EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS COMPLEX...WHICH HAS REMAINED THE MOST ACTIVE WITH NEW TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...ACROSS NORTHERN AR.  DESPITE EARLIER VWP AT
SPRINGFIELD MO SHOWING A VEER-BACK-VEER WIND PROFILE WITH MODEST
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WIND FIELDS /POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY THE MCV
CIRCULATION/ APPEAR TO BE RESULTING IN STRONGER EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
OF 35-40 KT FROM EASTERN OK TO FAR WESTERN TN.  MEANWHILE...
S/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THIS MCS WITH A RATHER MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT /GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/.  

BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE GENERALLY ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AR...SUGGESTING EMBEDDED LINEAR STRUCTURES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE...THOUGH SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. 
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH STEEP
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TRAILING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL OK...WITH THE EXPANDING AREA OF
COOLING CLOUD TOPS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST AR.  THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO
THE STRONGER INFLOW OF MOIST AIR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY.  STORMS
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHEAST MO AND NORTHEAST AR SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EASTWARD EXTENT INTO FAR
WESTERN KY/WESTERN TN.

..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 05/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...TSA...

LAT...LON   34519136 34319195 34249274 34409359 34669433 34979466
            35459467 35839309 36049213 36209156 36379077 36029025
            35479018 35199026 34719079 34519136 

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