SPC MD 868

MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS

MD 0868 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 271946Z - 272045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is not currently anticipated, but some risk for
occasional severe hail and wind may persist near sustained
convective development overspreading the region during the next few
hours.  Much stronger storm development is expected to initiate to
the south and west of the region by early evening.

DISCUSSION...A small area of sustained vigorous thunderstorm
development continues to gradually develop east southeastward into
portions of the Flint Hills between Wichita and Emporia.  This
activity is focused within the mid-level thermal gradient, on the
northern fringe of the plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed
layer air, which is gradually becoming suppressed
eastward/southward.  Some further intensification appears at least
possible within the moist and modestly unstable post-frontal
environment across southeast Kansas, particularly near/along the
stalled western flank of convective outflow generated by ongoing
convection across southwest Missouri. This may be accompanied by the
continuing risk for occasional severe hail, and perhaps a risk for
locally strong surface gusts.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38299648 38569581 38209489 37819467 37469533 37719628
            37889694 38299648 

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SPC MD 862

MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0862 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri
Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 271459Z - 271700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are
likely today across the area.  At the present time, this seems most
probable later this afternoon, rather than early.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and
northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in
association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude
westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest
through mid to late afternoon.  It appears that this arcing band
will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air
ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take
place.  And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near
surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which
appears to limit severe weather potential.

In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective
development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on
the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer
air.  This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward,
near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z
time.   In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively
strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the
risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could
possibly increase a bit through early afternoon.  However, rapid
substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of
inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most
probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks
later this afternoon.

Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of
the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary
left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing
gravity wave.  Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity
may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing
southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern
Missouri.  But significant rapid increase accompanied by more
prominent severe weather potential will probably require
considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and
destabilization.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374
            39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750
            37529811 

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SPC MD 862

MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0862 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri
Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 271459Z - 271700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are
likely today across the area.  At the present time, this seems most
probable later this afternoon, rather than early.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and
northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in
association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude
westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest
through mid to late afternoon.  It appears that this arcing band
will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air
ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take
place.  And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near
surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which
appears to limit severe weather potential.

In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective
development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on
the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer
air.  This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward,
near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z
time.   In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively
strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the
risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could
possibly increase a bit through early afternoon.  However, rapid
substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of
inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most
probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks
later this afternoon.

Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of
the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary
left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing
gravity wave.  Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity
may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing
southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern
Missouri.  But significant rapid increase accompanied by more
prominent severe weather potential will probably require
considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and
destabilization.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374
            39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750
            37529811 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qq6ydl

SPC MD 862

MD 0862 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN/EASTERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

MD 0862 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0862
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0959 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...Southern/eastern Kansas into the Missouri
Ozarks/lower Missouri Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 271459Z - 271700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least one, if not several, severe weather watches are
likely today across the area.  At the present time, this seems most
probable later this afternoon, rather than early.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to develop across and
northeast of portions of the middle/lower Missouri Valley, in
association with an initial weak impulse within the mid-latitude
westerlies, which is expected to progress toward the Upper Midwest
through mid to late afternoon.  It appears that this arcing band
will progress through a narrow corridor of relatively moist air
ahead of it, before appreciable heating and destabilization can take
place.  And northeast of the Des Moines IA/Kirksville Mo areas, near
surface inflow is likely to become drier and more stable, which
appears to limit severe weather potential.

In the wake of this lead activity, an area of enhanced lower/mid
tropospheric warm advection is also maintaining convective
development across parts of east central and northeast Kansas, on
the northern periphery of a plume of very warm, elevated mixed layer
air.  This forcing is expected to continue to develop southeastward,
near and to the west through south of Kansas City into the 18-21Z
time.   In the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, relatively
strong shear, and sizable CAPE even for elevated moist parcels, the
risk for at least severe hail may not be negligible, and could
possibly increase a bit through early afternoon.  However, rapid
substantive intensification seems likely to await weakening of
inhibition for moist boundary layer parcels, and this seems most
probable southeast of the Kansas City metro into the Missouri Ozarks
later this afternoon.

Some recent new convective development is ongoing across parts of
the Missouri Ozarks, near the intersection of an outflow boundary
left by prior convection, and an apparent southeastward advancing
gravity wave.  Similar to convection to the northwest, this activity
may persist and continue to slowly increase while developing
southeastward along the retreating outflow boundary across southern
Missouri.  But significant rapid increase accompanied by more
prominent severe weather potential will probably require
considerable further downstream boundary layer heating and
destabilization.

..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37529811 38289688 38779610 39099468 39599391 40049374
            39419277 37879047 36679142 36709384 36909525 36919750
            37529811 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qq6ydl

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the the Ozarks to
lower Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and Southern Missouri
  Southern Illinois
  Northern Arkansas
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwestern Tennessee
  Eastern Kansas
  Extreme Southwestern Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe wind gusts are forecast from the Ozark region
  to the lower Ohio Valley today. Additionally, very large to
  giant hail and tornadoes will be possible from the Red River
  Valley northeastward to the Ozark Plateau. Damaging winds, large
  hail, and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across the
  Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the
  Mid-Atlantic.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

Read more

from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to lower
Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Missouri
  Southern Illinois
  Northern Arkansas
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwestern Tennessee
  Eastern Kansas
  Extreme southwestern Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe wind gusts are forecast from the Ozarks
  eastward to the lower Ohio Valley today. Additionally, very
  large to giant hail and tornadoes will be possible from the Red
  River Valley northeastward to the Ozark Plateau. Damaging winds,
  large hail, and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across
  the Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the
  Mid-Atlantic.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

Read more

from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to lower
Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Missouri
  Southern Illinois
  Northern Arkansas
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwestern Tennessee
  Eastern Kansas
  Extreme southwestern Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe wind gusts are forecast from the Ozarks
  eastward to the lower Ohio Valley today. Additionally, very
  large to giant hail and tornadoes will be possible from the Red
  River Valley northeastward to the Ozark Plateau. Damaging winds,
  large hail, and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across
  the Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the
  Mid-Atlantic.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

Read more

from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA

SPC MD 857

MD 0857 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 273… FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 0857 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0857
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0335 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Areas affected...North-central and northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273...

Valid 270835Z - 271030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 273
continues.

SUMMARY...Storms -- and local severe risk -- continue moving east
across north-central Kansas.  New/downstream WW may be needed,
though some uncertainty exists.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong/locally severe storms
crossing parts of north-central Kansas, with the strongest activity
now preparing to enter western parts of Russell and Barton counties.
While ample -- though elevated -- downstream instability appears to
exist, VWP data continues to suggest that the strongest portion of
the LLJ (ssely at 40 to 50 kt) remains across western Kansas.  With
low-level inflow much weaker (around 20 kt from the southeast)
across central and eastern Kansas, some uncertainty with respect to
downstream severe risk is evident, as storms eventually vacate WW
273.  Along these lines, the latest runs of the NCEP and ESRL HRRR
both suggest that storms will weaken with time.  Still, given the
fairly well-organized/intense character of the existing cluster of
storms, we will continue to monitor trends over the next hour or so
with respect to the need for downstream WW issuance.

..Goss.. 05/27/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38500034 39879922 39639726 39769589 38989553 38309577
            38500034 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2qm5Xxa

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Ozarks to lower
Ohio Valley later today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Central and southern Missouri
  Southern Illinois
  Northern Arkansas
  Western Kentucky
  Eastern Oklahoma
  Northwestern Tennessee
  Eastern Kansas
  Extreme southwestern Indiana

* HAZARDS...
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  A few intense tornadoes
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  Widespread severe wind gusts are forecast from the Ozarks
  eastward to the lower Ohio Valley today. Additionally, very
  large to giant hail and tornadoes will be possible from the Red
  River Valley northeastward to the Ozark Plateau. Damaging winds,
  large hail, and a couple tornadoes will also be possible across
  the Tennessee Valley, middle Ohio Valley, and portions of the
  Mid-Atlantic.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio,
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch
means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms

Read more

from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA