SPC MD 1069

MD 1069 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI…NORTHEAST ARKANSAS

MD 1069 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011455Z - 011630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited potential for damaging wind gusts exists for areas
downstream of ongoing south-central MO convection. Greatest risk
appears to be in northeast AR if convection is maintained. No WW is
currently expected. Trends will be monitored, however.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving southeastward into
south-central Missouri may pose some risk for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts for another few hours. Overall,
convective trends have been down with IR satellite showing
contraction of the coldest cloud tops. With the 12Z LZK showing near
22 C at 850 mb and outflow from an overnight MCS to the east, the
potential for intensification appears limited. Should convection
maintain strength, the area of greatest risk for damaging wind gusts
will likely exist in northeast Arkansas where the strongest heating
will occur. Given the uncertainty, no WW is currently anticipated.
Trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37809339 38259256 37919086 36578997 35479000 35219073
            35459176 36709303 37359348 37809339 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/294QEkn

SPC MD 1067

MD 1067 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO

MD 1067 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Portions of far northeastern KS and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 010850Z - 011015Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...A strong to locally damaging wind threat continues with a
line of storms moving southeastward. Downstream watch issuance is
not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...Recent observed wind gusts across southeastern NE from
a small, bowing line of storms have generally been in the 30-35 kt
range. There may still be potential for locally strong to perhaps
damaging winds in the short term along the apex of the line
currently along the KS/MO border, where inbound velocities from TMCI
show some enhancement to 45-55 kt around 1200 ft AGL. Regardless,
the modest, 25-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet being estimated by
recent VWPs from KTWX should continue to slowly weaken over the next
few hours. This should result in eventual weakening of the line as
it moves southeastward. Given this expectation, downstream watch
issuance to the southeast of ongoing Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
is not expected at this time.

..Gleason.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39909606 39989522 40569477 40559446 39689432 39209464
            39229527 39409573 39669604 39909606 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2sDMybM

SPC MD 1066

MD 1066 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 321… FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NE…SOUTHWESTERN IA…NORTHEASTERN KS…AND NORTHWESTERN MO

MD 1066 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Portions of southeastern NE...southwestern
IA...northeastern KS...and northwestern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

Valid 010648Z - 010815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly damaging winds continues
in/near Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a well developed MCS arcing
along/near the MO River. The strongest portion of this line is along
the southern flank, where modest (30-35 kt) moisture influx is
occurring in tandem with a low-level jet. A reservoir of very strong
to extreme MUCAPE (4000-5000+ J/kg) is present to the
south-southeast of the southern flank. Current expectations are for
the MCS to move southeastward along an instability gradient into
northeastern KS and northwestern MO over the next couple of hours.
Given the linear mode, isolated damaging wind gusts from
thunderstorm outflow will likely remain the primary threat. The
greatest wind threat may focus where updrafts and corresponding
reflectivity can remain in close proximity to the outflow, which has
surged ahead of the line in most areas.

..Gleason.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   40899727 40849638 40939599 41349584 41869575 41859513
            40549455 39539454 39459557 40019728 40899727 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2RngjaA

SPC MD 1064

MD 1064 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 320… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS

MD 1064 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1064
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0926 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2020

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320...

Valid 010226Z - 010430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 320
continues.

SUMMARY...Convection should increase across much of ww320 over the
next few hours. Severe threat continues.

DISCUSSION...Negative-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting northeast
at roughly 25kt. Leading edge of stronger forcing should overtake
the frontal zone in the next few hours and this will likely lead to
an increase in thunderstorms along/just behind the cold front as
700mb temperatures (capping) cool. Current thunderstorms northwest
of GRI are slowly intensifying, and severe hail is likely observed
in several updrafts. Overall convective trends should be up over the
next few hours.

..Darrow.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39999997 44569888 44559624 39989752 39999997 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2txhnvp

SPC MD 1033

MD 1033 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE

MD 1033 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1033
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280714Z - 280815Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Mainly a strong to locally severe wind gust threat
persists early this morning. Downstream watch issuance into
northeastern Kansas and southeastern Nebraska will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Strong outbound velocities have recently been noted
from the KUEX radar with a small but well organized bowing line of
storms across north-central KS and south-central NE. The
semi-discrete storms in a warm advection regime that had earlier
been ahead of the line have generally been absorbed within the past
hour. With a linear mode now prevalent, strong to locally severe
wind gusts should be the main threat through the early morning
hours. This wind threat may be somewhat greater along/near the NE/KS
border along an instability gradient. A 35-45 kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet over the central Plains should peak in the next couple
of hours before slowly weakening. Given that the overall wind threat
with ongoing storms is expected to remain relatively confined in
both areal extent and time, current thoughts are that a downstream
watch will probably not be needed.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39339802 39959794 40519799 40909830 41179869 41419865
            41309770 41099724 40659657 40159604 39519603 39149649
            39139786 39339802 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2NAPP4b

SPC MD 1032

MD 1032 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHERN NE

MD 1032 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

Areas affected...Portions of northern KS and southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280552Z - 280715Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and strong to severe wind threat
continues across north-central Kansas and southern Nebraska. The
need for a downstream watch into northeastern Kansas and
southeastern Nebraska remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...A small bowing line segment across north-central KS and
south-central NE has generally produced 50-55 mph measured wind
gusts over the past hour. Additional, somewhat more discrete storms
have formed in a low-level warm advection wing farther east across
southern NE. The line of storms moving eastward will continue to
pose mainly an isolated strong to severe wind gust threat for the
next couple of hours across northern KS, as instability remains
fairly large downstream of this activity. The semi-discrete storms
across southern NE should primarily have an isolated large hail
threat initially given steep mid-level lapse rates supporting a
large reservoir of MUCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. But,
clustering may eventually reduce this hail threat to some extent.
Regardless, a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet feeding
into both storm regimes may support continued storm intensity for at
least the next few hours. The need for a new watch downstream of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311 remains unclear, but convective trends
will continue to be closely monitored.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39089942 39149946 39719922 40229936 40449992 40759990
            41019802 40969615 40159582 39489580 39059712 39089942 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2ri8ipz

SPC MD 1031

MD 1031 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 311… FOR NORTHERN KS…SOUTHERN NE

MD 1031 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1031
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Northern KS...Southern NE

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311...

Valid 280316Z - 280515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 311
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/severe storms will spread across mainly
the northern portions of ww311.

DISCUSSION...High-plains convection has evolved into a line segment,
roughly 50mi in length, as it propagates across northwestern
portions of the watch. Earlier, winds gusted to 50kt at Burlington
CO with this squall line. Latest observational data suggest earlier
surface boundary that was lifting north across southwest KS has
advanced to near the I-70 corridor, and warm advection is now
focused north of this wind shift. In addition, LLJ is beginning to
strengthen into this zone which should aid longevity of convection
as it spreads east into the early morning hours.

..Darrow.. 06/28/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38410235 40160190 40159774 38419828 38410235 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3ibPoLA

SPC MD 1021

MD 1021 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308… FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND FAR WEST-CENTRAL MO

MD 1021 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS and far west-central
MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 270822Z - 270915Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated strong to severe wind threat continues in the
short term, but the overall severe risk should gradually diminish
early this morning.

DISCUSSION...Consolidation of multiple clusters has occurred over
the past couple of hours across KS and into the Kansas City metro.
Overall radar presentation has recently become less organized as
convective inhibition continues to increase along/south of ongoing
storms. Even so, the more organized/strongest segment of the cluster
is now moving across the Kansas City metro, with mainly an isolated
strong to damaging wind threat. As the 35-45 kt southwesterly
low-level jet over KS gradually weakens through the remainder of the
early morning, the expectation is for a slow weakening trend to
ongoing storms within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308. Accordingly, a
downstream/replacement watch for east-central KS into far
west-central MO is not anticipated at this time.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38879841 39339736 39219544 39409419 38789352 38479399
            38329504 38229642 38199841 38879841 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3dApde9

SPC MD 1019

MD 1019 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308… FOR PORTIONS OF KS…SOUTHERN NE…EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN IA…AND NORTHERN MO

MD 1019 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

Areas affected...Portions of KS...southern NE...extreme southwestern
IA...and northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308...

Valid 270628Z - 270830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 308
continues.

SUMMARY...Multiple clusters of storms will continue to pose both a
large hail and severe wind threat for at least the next couple of
hours.

DISCUSSION...An eastward-moving line of storms across western KS
continues to produce strong to severe wind gusts early this morning.
A measured gust to 58 kt (67 mph) recently occurred in Garden City
KS with outflow that has surged well ahead of this ongoing
convection. A separate cluster with embedded supercells on its
northern flank is occurring across north-central KS and far
south-central NE. Isolated large hail will be possible with any
storm that can remain semi-discrete given the steep mid-level lapse
rates that are present over the central Plains (reference 00Z DDC
and OAX soundings).

Current expectations are for both clusters in KS to eventually merge
and develop south-southeastward into central/eastern KS over the
next couple of hours. This region still has the strongest
instability present (MUCAPE 2000-3000+ J/kg) per recent
mesoanalysis, and a 30-40+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet over
the southern/central Plains will likely support continued storm
intensity and organization early this morning. Strong to severe wind
gusts should become the main threat with time as storm mode becomes
increasingly linear.

Additional, more widely spaced, clusters in far southeastern NE and
northwestern/north-central MO should also pose an isolated large
hail and wind threat in the short term. These areas are displaced
slightly to the east of the low-level jet axis, which may impact
their intensity/longevity to some degree. Still, one of these
clusters may approach the Kansas City metro in the next 1-2 hours,
where a favorable thermodynamic environment is present to support
severe/damaging winds.

As convection gradually approaches the southern bounds of Severe
Thunderstorm Watch 308 in the next couple of hours, local extensions
in area or a new watch may need to be considered into parts of
southern KS and perhaps west-central MO.

..Gleason.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37880145 39010050 40199993 40509895 40829627 40799570
            40269495 40609249 39329239 38409626 37849851 37730064
            37880145 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3eETCJw

SPC MD 1017

MD 1017 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 309… FOR KANSAS…SOUTHERN NEBRASKA…SOUTHERN IOWA…NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 1017 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1041 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

Areas affected...Kansas...Southern Nebraska...Southern
Iowa...Northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309...

Valid 270341Z - 270545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 309
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across ww309.

DISCUSSION...LLJ is beginning to strengthen across the TX Panhandle
into western KS where it is forecast to approach 40kt over the next
few hours. This appears to be partly responsible for recent increase
in convection along/just north of the boundary near HLC.
Additionally, thunderstorm cluster east of CNK is intensifying with
a substantial hail signature noted with this slow-moving convection.
Over the next few hours an extensive, elongated corridor of
thunderstorms should evolve north of I-70 across KS, extending into
northern MO. Latest radar data suggests an MCV is beginning to
evolve with the High Plains convection near IML and this should
encourage downstream storms north of the boundary as well. Overall,
a slowly sagging band of storms should drop south with time if a
sufficient cold pool develops.

..Darrow.. 06/27/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40260083 40419781 40829593 41099249 40289257 39089659
            38789958 37770191 40260083 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3i8pWXC