SPC MD 570

MD 0570 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

MD 0570 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 0570
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Tue May 07 2019

Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas and adjacent portions of
northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 071911Z - 072115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An evolving cluster of storms may strengthen and become
better organized through 3-5 PM CDT, possible becoming accompanied
by increasing potential for strong surface gusts approaching severe
limits.  It is not certain that a watch will be needed, but trends
will continue to be monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...A sustained cluster of thunderstorms to the
west/northwest of Wichita has been supported by large-scale ascent
associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm advection, to the cool
side of the stalled surface frontal zone.  This appears close enough
to the front that continuing inflow of seasonably moist and
destabilizing air from the warm sector may maintain activity and
contribute to substantial further intensification through mid to
late afternoon.

As this occurs, there appears potential for a gradually
strengthening surface cold pool, coupled with at least modest shear
in the convective layer, to contribute to the evolution of a better
organized mesoscale convective system, with increasing potential for
strong surface gusts.  Despite being embedded within rather weak
(less than 20 kt) west-southwesterly ambient mean flow, storm-scale
process could lead to peak gusts at least approaching severe limits.

..Kerr/Guyer.. 05/07/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   38369707 38769580 38429489 37099494 36679724 36759836
            37499888 38369707 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2H6T2pA

SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

Public Severe Weather Outlook

PWO Image

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CDT TUE MAY 07 2019

...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the southern High
Plains this afternoon and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Texas Panhandle
  Western Oklahoma

* HAZARDS...
  Several tornadoes, a few intense
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size
  Widespread damaging winds

* SUMMARY...
  Numerous severe storms are expected this afternoon into early
  tonight across the Texas Panhandle into extreme western
  Oklahoma. A couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
  damaging winds will all be possible.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Smith.. 05/07/2019

$$

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from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1Mw5lDA