SPC MD 1230

MD 1230 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI

MD 1230 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1230
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Areas affected...central through eastern Kansas into northwest
Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 150607Z - 150700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Threat for a few strong to damaging wind gusts and some
hail will exist through the early morning across a portion of
central through eastern Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a
possible WW.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing in multiple regimes
including across southwest Kansas in association with an MCV as well
as across south central and southeast Kansas within an evolving warm
advection regime. Objective analysis indicates a reservoir of
moderate instability remaining across eastern Kansas with 2000-2500
J/kg MLCAPE. Storms have recently shown some intensification and
organization across south central KS, and this activity will
continue to be monitored for persistence and possible evolution into
a forward propagating line/cluster as it develops eastward through
the moderately unstable environment.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38009831 38479804 39029673 38899590 38209572 37429660
            37379808 38009831 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/32w0d6b

SPC MD 1228

MD 1228 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369…371… FOR SOUTHEAST CO…EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLE…SOUTHWEST KS…NORTHWEST OK

MD 1228 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1228
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0924 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...Southeast CO...Eastern OK/TX Panhandle...Southwest
KS...Northwest OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369...371...

Valid 150224Z - 150430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 369, 371
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across the south-central High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...Two separate linear MCSs, each about 75 miles long,
have evolved over the south-central High Plains this evening. This
activity initially struggled a bit, but each MCS appears to be
ingesting more buoyant air, with storm-top venting much more robust
over the last hour. Measured severe wind gusts have been noted with
the southern-most squall line, and severe gusts are also likely
occurring across southeastern CO as well. Over the next few hours,
LLJ will increase markedly over western OK which should encourage
eastward propagation north of the synoptic front. Damaging winds
remain the primary threat.

..Darrow.. 07/15/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   38250212 38190028 36069950 35740065 36850111 37260223
            38250212 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1mCvKCK

SPC MD 1219

MD 1219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN KANSAS

MD 1219 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Areas affected...eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 140831Z - 140930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose some risk for isolated
damaging wind next couple hours across a portion of eastern and
southeast Kansas. Trends are being monitored for a possible WW.

DISCUSSION...An MS over central KS has intensified during the past
30 min or so with radar base velocity data now indicating a corridor
of 70 kt winds at 7000 ft, but some of this momentum might extend to
lower levels and could be reaching the surface. The MCS is being
driven by an MCV and intensifying low-level jet. Deep convergence
along the gust front might remain sufficient to sustain storms
through a corridor of moderate instability next few hours before the
low-level jet begins to veer and weaken.

..Dial/Thompson.. 07/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   38089849 38689784 38849674 38289582 37709572 37259668
            37759797 38089849 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1qbJtGE

SPC MD 1218

MD 1218 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL KS…CENTRAL NE

MD 1218 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1218
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0855 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Areas affected...central KS...central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

Valid 140155Z - 140300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch to the east of severe
thunderstorm watch #366 will likely be needed.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic this evening shows a north-south oriented
thunderstorm cluster from southwest NE into northwest KS.  The North
Platte ASOS recently observed a 76-kt gust at 842pm CDT.  Surface
analysis over central KS into central NE shows a moist boundary
layer evident by dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 deg F. 
Although temperatures will gradually cool this evening, moderate
instability resides over the discussion area.  The 7pm CDT North
Platte, NE observed sounding showed 2600 J/kg MLCAPE and an 8.5
700-500mb lapse rate.  KUEX VAD has shown only a slight
strengthening in 1-2km AGL flow over the past hour, but additional
intensification of the LLJ is expected this evening, which should
aid in northward moisture transport and isentropic lift.  It is
uncertain how far east a risk for severe gusts will exist before
storms weaken and the environment becomes less supportive for severe
gusts.

..Smith/Hart.. 07/14/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38300027 41349916 41299736 38319861 38300027 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1pQSy5z

SPC MD 1204

MD 1204 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 364… FOR GULF COAST

MD 1204 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Areas affected...Gulf Coast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

Valid 122328Z - 130100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
continues.

SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts will remain possible with the
thunderstorm complex as it moves offshore and out of WW364.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms across south Alabama,
Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle is approaching the Gulf
Coast. A general weakening trend has been noted via decreasing radar
echo top heights over the last hour. This trend should continue
given the lack of strong forcing for ascent and the gradual decrease
in buoyancy as the storms continue toward the instability gradient.
Despite weakening, a few strong wind gusts will remain possible with
the complex as it moves toward the Gulf Coast and off shore within
the next hour or two. Redevelopment on the western edge of the
complex across southern Mississippi will likely pose the greatest
threat for strong wind gusts given more robust surface based
buoyancy of 2000-3000 J/kg. Thus, the severe threat remains across
WW364.

..Lyons/Hart.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   31998846 31778681 31468591 30988580 30018579 29988612
            30188854 30328886 31648907 31998846 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/38NF1JI

SPC MD 1192

MD 1192 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 358… FOR SOUTHEAST KS…SOUTHWEST MO…NORTHEAST OK…NORTHWEST AR

MD 1192 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0700 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Southeat KS...Southwest MO...Northeast
OK...Northwest AR

Concerning...Tornado Watch 358...

Valid 120000Z - 120130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 358 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will sag south into northeast
Oklahoma over the next hour. Hail and wind can be expected.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm updrafts are gradually
strengthening/deepening within an expanding cluster over southeast
KS. This activity has drifted south along the eastern edge of an
intense instability plume characterized by 5000-6000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Earlier updrafts struggled a bit across east-central KS, but cloud
top venting appears stronger over the last hour or so. Additionally,
very large hail is likely occurring with these storms. There is
increasing confidence that an expanding cluster of storms will
emerge, along with a possible notable cold pool. If so, at some
point the forward propagation may begin to increase and the wind
threat would necessarily increase as well.

Local watch extension, or a new watch, may be needed across eastern
OK and northwest AR.

..Darrow.. 07/12/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   37749582 37079469 36129433 36009552 37509638 37749582 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2sXNLcS

SPC MD 1190

MD 1190 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.

MD 1190 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Southern Kansas...Northern Oklahoma...northern
Texas Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 112100Z - 112330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected this evening across southern
Kansas, northern Oklahoma, and the northern Texas Panhandle. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Severe storms are expected to evolve from multiple
regimes across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma late this
afternoon/evening. Visible satellite has shown cumulus to be mostly
flat across western and central Kansas thus far as heights have
risen across the area. The exception is across east central Kansas
on the western edge of ongoing convection and in northern portions
of a stationary front extending from near Emporia, KS to Amarillo,
TX. SPC mesoanalysis shows CINH has eroded across this area. While
upper forcing remains limited, an outflow boundary from earlier
convection may be the focus for additional initiation in the next
few hours. 

In addition, very hot conditions and deep mixing in the Texas
Panhandle have led to high based cu along the stationary front. One
or more storms will likely develop in this region this afternoon and
gradually become more severe as they move east into a more favorable
environment. 

Finally, storms will likely form later this evening along the front
in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, likely aided by a
strengthening low-level jet and increasing upper forcing through the
evening. 

Once storms form, they will likely be severe given 3500 to 5000 J/kg
MLCAPE and 8 C/km lapse rates across the region and effective shear
ranging from 40 to 55 kts per SPC mesoanalysis and confirmed by 18Z
LMN RAOB. Therefore, a watch is likely late this afternoon/evening,
but there is still uncertainty about timing. 

The primary hazards will be large hail (some 2+" possible), and
severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). The large hail will be
most likely early in the storms life cycle with severe wind becoming
the dominant threat as storms grow upscale.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36319732 35849908 35930018 36360110 36870089 37600007
            38379882 39109792 39179702 38599611 37759593 36899594
            36319732 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2tqt5eS

SPC MD 1189

MD 1189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

MD 1189 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...far
northeast Oklahoma...and far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 112007Z - 112130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon
downstream of watch 357.

DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed in northeast Kansas and
are tracking southeastward. The strongest of these supercells has
tracked from Pottawatomie County to Osage County with numerous large
hail reports and a few reports of hail in excess of 2 inches. The
environment ahead of this supercell remains very favorable
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-55 kts effective shear per SPC
mesoanalysis and TOP RAOB respectively) and thus it is expected to
persist despite HRRR guidance suggesting it may weaken/dissipate.
Additional storm development is also possible in the region,
especially near the outflow boundary on the western edge of the
ongoing convection. Given the favorable environment and the
expectation for ongoing storms to persist, a downstream watch will
likely be needed soon.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38209632 38349579 38419433 38229340 37779290 37119222
            36809208 36549207 36149311 36119437 36389519 36999596
            37649638 38209632 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1BFPm7m

SPC MD 1186

MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS

MD 1186 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 111743Z - 111915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail (some very large) and damaging
winds will increase through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis shows a cold front from northern
Missouri westward across northern Kansas which is slowly moving
south. An area of cumulus development has expanded in the vicinity
of this cold front over the past hour with a few failed attempts at
(likely elevated) initiation. However, temperatures have now warmed
into the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of this front.
This has mostly eroded CINH according to SPC mesoanalysis and RAP
forecast soundings. As a result, more robust storm development has
been observed in Marshall and Nemaha counties, and increasing storm
coverage/intensity will likely continue through the afternoon. The
environment in this area is quite favorable for splitting supercells
given MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg and increasing per SPC
mesoanalysis and long-straight hodographs with effective shear
around 50 knots. In addition, very steep lapse rates (8 C/km per 12Z
TOP RAOB) and moderately strong anvil layer flow (forecast to be 50
to 70 knots) will support a threat for very large hail.
Additionally, severe wind gusts (some significant) will also be
possible given the steep lapse rates and extreme instability. This
severe wind threat will likely become more substantial through time
as storms grow upscale.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39969716 39989614 39779520 39109449 38269441 37629506
            37829605 38349654 39439742 39969716 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1nQNkWb

SPC MD 1182

MD 1182 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS/EXTREME NORTHEAST OK

MD 1182 Image


Mesoscale Discussion 1182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Areas affected...Southeast KS/extreme northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111238Z - 111415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated elevated storms are forming across southeast
Kansas and could spread into extreme northeast Oklahoma before
weakening by late morning.  Isolated large hail and damaging gusts
will be possible, but a watch does not appear necessary at this
time.

DISCUSSION...Weak low-level warm advection on the east edge of the
richest low-level moisture, where convective inhibition is weak, has
supported thunderstorm development this morning across southeast KS.
Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, along with
effective bulk shear in excess of 40 kt, will favor some organized
storm structures, including the potential for splitting supercells. 
The background environment and semi-discrete storm mode could favor
isolated large hail, and strong downdrafts could reach the surface
even though the updrafts are likely rooted near or above the 850 mb
level.  There is a small chance the ongoing storms could produce
enough of a cold pool to persist a little longer into the day,
though storm coverage may diminish by late morning as the warm
advection weakens.  Given this uncertainty, a severe thunderstorm
watch does not appear necessary, though this area will be monitored
through the morning.

..Thompson.. 07/11/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37569587 36929574 36649605 36729651 37169696 37949721
            38329727 38529691 38549650 37989595 37569587 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1TQe1MK