SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe-storm potential may develop late Saturday into Sunday morning over parts of the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A deep but positively tilted upper trough will move east/southeast across TX, and toward the lower MS Valley Saturday afternoon, with 500 mb winds increasing to over 70-80 kt. This wave is forecast to tilt neutrally and move due east late in the period, as it begins to phase with a developing trough over the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a low will be over the northwest Gulf of Mexico Saturday morning, with an associated large area of convection possible. Weak pressure falls are expected inland over LA and MS during the day, with continued widespread storms into the northern Gulf of Mexico. A boundary extending east from the initial low will eventually become a warm front over the northern/northeastern Gulf Coast states, with mid to upper 60s F dewpoints into southern AL, GA, and FL. This warm advection will be aided by strengthening 850 mb flow to 50 kt. The aforementioned storm activity over the water makes this forecast one of low predictability, despite potential for inland destabilization late. However, given ample shear and ascent with this system, low severe probabilities are warranted, with further adjustments likely in upcoming outlooks. ..Jewell.. 04/27/2023
