SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA...AND ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic today, and also across parts of central and south Florida. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be the primary hazards, though isolated hail will also be possible. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave will eject quickly northeastward from the Southeast Sunday morning into New England by evening, as a longwave trough amplifies over the central/eastern CONUS. A surface cyclone will deepen as it moves from the Carolinas toward the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. As this occurs, a cold front will sweep through much of the Southeast and the northern/central Gulf of Mexico. ...Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic... Convection will likely be ongoing Sunday morning across parts of the Carolinas, within a favorably sheared and at least weakly unstable environment. Some threat for damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible any of the stronger cells/clusters during the morning, before this early convection moves offshore or northeastward into the Mid Atlantic. In the wake of the early convection, storms may redevelop closer to the track of the ejecting shortwave trough and surface low, primarily along the cold front. Strong deep-layer shear will continue to support organized storms, though the magnitude of instability remains uncertain at this time. An organized cluster or two along the front will be possible, posing a threat of damaging gusts. Low-level flow/shear will also likely be sufficient to support a tornado or two with these afternoon storms, especially if a discrete supercell or two can be sustained. The northern extent of the threat remains uncertain, but modest destabilization appears possible into at least the Delmarva region, where some threat for damaging gusts and possibly a tornado may develop late in the afternoon or evening as the surface low tracks across the area. ...Central/south Florida... Widespread convection will also likely be ongoing across the FL Peninsula Sunday morning. While stronger large-scale ascent will moving quickly away from this region, organized storms will remain possible along/ahead of the cold front, within a moderately unstable and favorably sheared environment. Low-level shear will be sufficient to support some tornado threat, especially during the morning before low-level flow begins to weaken. Otherwise, strong/damaging gusts and some hail will be possible with the strongest cells/clusters, before the cold front clears the FL Peninsula sometime during the late afternoon or evening. ..Dean.. 04/29/2023
