SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon Apr 03 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTH AL...FL PANHANDLE...EXTREME SOUTHWEST GA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across parts of south Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, mainly during the day today. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible late this afternoon into the early evening from central and east Texas into southeast Oklahoma. ...Parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast... A low amplitude shortwave trough will move quickly eastward from the Southeast into the Carolinas during the day today, as low-level moisture streams inland in the wake of a northward-moving warm front. 00Z HREF guidance and recent HRRR runs have trended toward a greater potential for surface-based convection to develop near the Gulf Coast prior to 12Z this morning, which would spread eastward across southern AL and the FL Panhandle through the first part of the day. MLCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg and favorable deep-layer shear will support the potential for a couple of supercells. 0-1 km SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2 range will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes, in addition to the threat of locally damaging gusts and perhaps some isolated hail. The shortwave will move quickly away from the region this afternoon, but one or more storm clusters may persist within a moist and weakly capped environment, posing a threat of isolated damaging gusts and/or hail into the afternoon. Farther northwest, a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out within a strongly sheared and destabilizing warm sector across MS and northern AL, but confidence remains low in this scenario, due to negligible large-scale ascent. ...Central/east TX into southeast OK... Moderate to strong buoyancy and strong deep-layer shear will support a conditionally favorable environment for supercells along/ahead of a dryline from central/east TX into southeast OK. However, with a deepening upper trough remaining well to the west during the day and weak convergence expected along the dryline, storm initiation remains highly uncertain. Any sustained supercell would pose a conditional risk of all severe hazards, but confidence in development at any particular location along the dryline is too low for more than Marginal Risk probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Midwest... Instability will increase across portions of the Midwest later today into tonight, as moisture increases beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates. Potential for surface-based development appears limited due to lingering MLCINH and weak large-scale ascent, but a few strong elevated storms cannot be ruled out tonight, which could pose a risk of isolated hail. ..Dean/Thornton.. 04/03/2023
