SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe thunderstorm development posing a risk for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts may increase late this evening through the overnight hours across much of the Florida Peninsula. ...01Z Update... Although notable spread exists among the various models, surface cyclogenesis is generally forecast from southeastern Alabama into the Carolinas tonight. While a trailing cold front may advance eastward into the Florida Peninsula by late tonight, it appears that a developing warm frontal zone to the east-northeast of the low may shift into the Carolina coastal plain. Above the warm sector boundary-layer, a 50+ kt south-southwesterly 850 mb jet streak (currently propagating north-northeastward across northern Florida) may elongate offshore of the Georgia/Carolina coast through the central/southern Florida Peninsula by 12Z Sunday. A substantive portion of the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through southern Georgia/northern Florida and the peninsula has been stabilized by the remnants of a weakening eastward propagating convective system, and downstream Atlantic coast sea-breeze thunderstorm development this afternoon. And potential for appreciable destabilization overnight remains unclear. However, various model output does indicate deepening boundary-moisture within the warm sector by late this evening, and particularly by late tonight (after 08-09Z) ahead of the cold front, across Gulf coastal areas near/south of Tampa through the Fort Myers area, northeastward through the Space Coast vicinity. Coinciding with increasing forcing for ascent aided by the approaching mid-level short wave trough, enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs and strengthening deep-layer shear, it still appears possible that the environment may become increasingly conducive to organized convective development, including supercells with the potential to produce a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 04/30/2023
