SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS EASTWARD TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA... CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN WEST TEXAS ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday through Wednesday morning across most of Texas towards the Lower Mississippi River Valley. Several tornadoes, a couple of which should be strong, significant large hail, and damaging winds are likely. ...Synopsis... An upper low is forecast to reside over northwestern Mexico and adjacent portions of Arizona/New Mexico at the start of the period, flanked by ridging over both the western and eastern states. The low is forecast to advance steadily eastward, moving across West Texas through the second half of the period. Several lead disturbances within southwesterly/cyclonic flow ahead of this system will spread across the south-central U.S. through the period. At the surface, an outflow-reinforced warm front should reside from central Texas east-northeastward to the Louisiana/Arkansas border vicinity at the start of the period, while a rather ill-defined trough/front shifts eastward across western Texas through the day, and then becomes a bit better defined while moving across central and eventually eastern Texas through the overnight hours. ...Texas eastward to the lower Mississippi Valley... A warm-advection regime will persist across Texas through the period, shifting gradually eastward with time, ahead of the advancing upper system -- supporting broad ascent across the region. With northward advection of rich low-level Gulf moisture, beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, the aforementioned ascent will combine with abundant CAPE to support multiple rounds/widespread deep convection across the region. Given the widespread, strong-to-severe convection which likely to be ongoing from west-central Texas eastward to northern Louisiana at the start of the period, highlighting areas of greater severe potential through the day and into the evening/overnight remains quite difficult/uncertain at this time. One possible corridor of enhanced severe potential is evident across portions of southeast TX and into west LA, near roughly west-to-east outflow-reinforced surface boundary associated with ongoing, locally severe storms. Near and south of this boundary, favorably strong/veering deep-layer flow with height -- residing over the broader region -- will combine with a zone of potential heating/afternoon destabilization to support one area of concentrated severe risk. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible, along with a few tornadoes -- and some risk for a strong tornado or two -- where a few supercells are expected, especially on the southern fringe of what should be more clustered convection. Farther west, isolated convective redevelopment is expected during the afternoon and evening along the trailing outflow boundary intersection with the dryline/cold front across the central TX vicinity, and southward toward the Rio Grande. Weaker low-level shear is expected across this area, but the favorably strong flow aloft combined with mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. Storms will spread eastward with time, with a broad area of all-hazards severe risk spreading across the eastern half of Texas and into Louisiana through the evening and overnight. Still farther west, across portions of western and northwestern TX, early-day large hail potential should subside for a time, before additional storms redevelop later into the afternoon near the mid-level low. While surface winds should largely be northerly by this time, adequate buoyancy within the approaching mid-level cold pocket will yield a renewed threat for large hail which may continue into the evening hours. ..Goss.. 04/08/2024
