SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Wed Aug 03 2022 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OZARK PLATEAU REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the Great Lakes to the Lower Missouri Valley this evening. ...01z Update... Weak short-wave trough is advancing across the Midwest this evening. An elongated corridor of convection has persisted ahead of this feature, currently extending in a broken fashion from south-central MO-southern IL-into northwestern OH. Much of this activity has gradually weakened over the last few hours, but some intensity remains with the storms over IL into MO. Latest diagnostic data still depicts an axis of buoyancy extending from northern OH into the Ozark Plateau. Given the weak short-wave support, there is reason to believe the IL convection may remain sporadically robust as it propagates east-southeast over the next few hours. A few strong storms may also spread south of the international border as a fairly significant precip shield/cold pool over southern ON will likely force stronger updrafts toward the southern shore of Lake Erie over the next few hours. Isolated robust updrafts are gradually spreading west across NM/northern Mexico. This activity should move toward the lower deserts of AZ where some threat for gusty winds may be noted before activity weakens later this evening. ..Darrow.. 08/04/2022
