SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Fri Aug 05 2022 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated large hail and damaging winds are expected this evening across parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. ...Dakotas/Minnesota... Latest water vapor imagery shows west-southwest mid-level flow over the northern Plains, with several subtle shortwave troughs located from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. The shortwave trough furthest to the east appears to be in the central Dakotas, where the RAP is analyzing a vorticity max to the northwest of Mobridge, South Dakota. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is analyzed in central South Dakota, with an inverted trough extending northeastward into western Minnesota. A cold front is moving southeastward across the Dakotas. A moist airmass is located along and ahead of the front, where surface dewpoints are generally from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The RAP is analyzing a narrow corridor of moderate instability (2500-3500 J/kg) from near Aberdeen to Fargo. Several small clusters of storms are ongoing along the eastern edge of the corridor of moderate instability. A capping inversion is still present across most of the northern Plains, which is keeping the storms elevated. Still, RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis this evening have effective shear between 35 and 40 knots. This combined with 500-700 mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km should be sufficient for isolated rotating storms with large hail, mainly from northeastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota where the strongest instability is located. As storms congeal into short line segments this evening, an isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. The severe threat will likely continue into the late evening as a 35 to 45 knot low-level jet strengthens across eastern South Dakota and north-central Minnesota. ..Broyles.. 08/06/2022
