SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Tue Dec 19 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern/central California and over portions of the Southwest on Wednesday. Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low initially over the eastern Pacific and west of San Francisco is forecast to advance generally southward through Wednesday night. To the east of this feature, a belt of modestly enhanced mid-level southwesterly flow will overspread parts of southern/central CA through the period. A band of precipitation preceding a surface front should move slowly eastward through the day, eventually impacting coastal portions of southern/central CA. Modest diurnal heating of a moist profile through low/mid levels should support the development of weak instability across these areas. Isolated thunderstorms may occur within the larger band of precipitation as it advances eastward. Poor lapse rates should generally limit updraft intensity, and organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Still, isolated strong/gusty winds may occur given somewhat favorable kinematics. Occasional lighting flashes also appear possible Wednesday across parts of AZ/NM into far west TX in association with a weak shortwave trough moving northeastward over these areas. Both moisture and buoyancy appear quite limited, which should keep the overall thunderstorm threat rather isolated. ..Gleason.. 12/19/2023
