SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Dec 23 2023 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern High Plains, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes to the ongoing forecast. Increasing ascent is evident in eastern New Mexico where thunderstorms are beginning to initiate. A few strong to severe storms remain possible as activity spreads into the more of the southern High Plains. ..Wendt.. 12/23/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Sat Dec 23 2023/ ...Southern High Plains... An upper low is tracking eastward across AZ this morning, with a 50-60 knot southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading much of the southern High Plains. Relatively strong southerly low-level winds across southwest TX are aiding the maintenance of mid-50s surface dewpoints across the region. Widespread clouds are currently suppressing heating, but visible imagery shows considerable breaks across parts of southeast NM and far southwest TX, with some slow clearing building eastward through the day. This should lead to a narrow corridor of 1000 J/kg of CAPE by late afternoon along the TX/NM border. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in this corridor and track eastward into west TX through the evening. Initial storms may have supercell structures capable of hail owing to favorable vertical shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates. Activity should evolve into bowing line segments by early evening, with occasional gusty/damaging winds being the main threat. The primary period of concern for strong/severe storms appears to be roughly from 21-03z. Despite weaker instability, a few strong/severe storms may also occur farther north into the TX panhandle, and farther east into west-central TX. Gusty/damaging winds would be the main threats with these storms.
