SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH GA/NORTH FL... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a tornado or two will be possible, primarily this afternoon from south Georgia into north Florida. ...Southeast through tonight... A midlevel trough approaching the lower MS Valley will eject east-northeastward to VA/NC by early Tuesday, as an associated/deepening surface cyclone progresses offshore and a trailing cold front moves across most of FL by 12z. The modestly unstable warm sector is confined to a small part of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA as of late morning, in advance of an ongoing band of storms. Wind profiles are still sufficiently strong to support some potential for damaging winds and/or a tornado or two through this afternoon. Farther north and northwest, clouds are widespread and the prospects for diurnal destabilization appear muted. There might be enough cloud breaks for weak buoyancy to develop immediately in advance of the surface cyclone into southeast TN/northwest GA, though confidence is low. Relatively poor lapse rates and (at best) weak buoyancy will tend to keep any severe threat marginal into the Carolinas this evening into tonight. ..Thompson/Wendt.. 02/12/2024
