SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sun Jul 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday across portions of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard. Isolated severe storms will also be possible over portions of the northern and central High Plains. ...Northeast/mid-Atlantic states... A cold front will move steadily east across the northeast U.S. Monday, extending generally from north-central ME southwest to central PA and then southwest in the vicinity of the Ohio River by 00z Tuesday. In advance of the front, a very moist air mass, characterized by widespread 70s dew points and PW values near 2 inches, will be in place. Cloud cover/morning precipitation could temper daytime heating to some degree, however expect MLCAPE to range from 1500 to 2000 J/kg, locally higher by afternoon. Seasonably strong low/mid-level flow will be in place resulting in mostly unidirectional wind fields and 30-50 kts of effective shear, with the highest values across northern portions of the risk area. Clusters or line segments of strong/severe storms appear probable during the afternoon/early evening capable of damaging downburst winds. Relatively long/straight hodographs in RAP/NAM forecast soundings support supercell structures from the northern Delmarva northward across the Slight Risk area. ...Portions of OH/TN Valley west to mid-Missouri Valley... Thunderstorms should develop along the cold front during the afternoon within a moderately unstable air mass. Although effective shear will be weaker, deep moist thermodynamic profiles and high PW values should support multicell clusters capable of isolated damaging downburst winds. ...Northern/Central High Plains... Isolated thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon across northeast WY/western SD and move southeast through evening. Moderate MLCAPE beneath the eastern periphery of an EML and around 30 kts of WNW mid-level flow should support supercells capable of severe hail and strong wind gusts. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Developing warm advection Monday night associated with a 40-45 kt low-level jet should support thunderstorm development over northeast KS/northern MO. Uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the severe threat precludes severe probabilities with this outlook, however this will be re-evaluated in subsequent issuances. ..Bunting.. 07/24/2022
