SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2022 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms will be possible this evening from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into far southern New England, and across parts of the lower Missouri Valley. ...Mid-Atlantic To Far Southern New England... The latest surface analysis shows a pre-frontal trough along the Eastern Seaboard from southern New England southwestward into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass is located ahead of the trough with surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F. This has contributed to moderate instability across the Atlantic coastal plains this evening. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis from central North Carolina, north-northeastward into Connecticut, with a larger cluster located near the coast of southern New Jersey. These storms may be associated with marginally severe winds before moving eastward into the Atlantic coastal waters early this evening. ...Lower Missouri Valley... A subtle shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the mid Missouri Valley this evening. A moist airmass is currently located from the central Plains eastward into south-central Missouri. As south to southwesterly flow increases in the 850 to 700 mb layer, this airmass will advect northward into north-central Missouri later this evening. Lift associated with warm advection will aid elevated convective development along the northern edge of the stronger instability. These elevated storms are likely to form around 04Z and persist into the overnight period. Hail and strong gusty winds could accompany the stronger cores, along and west northwest-to-east southeast corridor from far northeast Kansas into southwest Illinois. ..Broyles.. 07/26/2022
