SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact a corridor from the middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard through parts of the Gulf Coast and southern Great Plains, and from the western Texas Panhandle into the the Colorado Front Range, Monday afternoon and evening. Some of these may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. ...Synopsis... Models indicate little change to the prevailing split mid/upper flow, from the Pacific Coast into the western Atlantic, through this period. A series of slow moving lower/mid-tropospheric cyclones, will linger within this regime, in various stages of evolution. While the initially most prominent circulation may shift a bit farther offshore of the Canadian Maritimes Monday through Monday night, the center of a similarly broad upstream circulation may remain quasi-stationary near the Michigan Thumb, with at least a bit more prominent short wave ridging building in between. A third circulation may continue to gradually weaken across the Great Basin, within elongating mid-level troughing on the northwestern periphery of mid-level ridging across the northern Mexican Plateau and Rio Grande Valley into the southern Great Plains. As an occluding surface low associated with the Great Lakes circulation migrates north/northwest of the lower Great Lakes region, a trailing cold front is forecast to advance east of the Appalachians and across much of the Atlantic Seaboard by late Monday night. As this occurs, it appears that seasonably moist air will become increasingly confined to areas along and south of the stalling trailing flank of the front, across the Gulf coast into the southern Great Plains. Near the northern periphery of the mid-level ridging, into southern periphery of the downstream troughing, some further strengthening of westerly/northwesterly mid-level flow and steepening mid-level lapse rates may contribute to at least increasing conditional severe thunderstorm potential. ...Mid/Southern Mid Atlantic Seaboard... While the mid-level cold core of the Great Lakes low remains well upstream, a belt of 30-50 kt southwesterly flow (in the 850-500 mb layer) is forecast to overspread the region during the day Monday. This will provide potential for enhancing thunderstorm development within a moistening boundary-layer, along and east of the deepening lee surface troughing. At this time, the degree of destabilization and placement of highest thunderstorm probabilities remain unclear. However, once this becomes better resolved, it is still possible that severe wind probabilities could be increased in later outlooks for this period. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Gulf coast states... In the presence of increasing potential instability and gradually strengthening deep-layer shear, various model output appears increasingly suggestive that a remnant convectively generated or enhanced perturbation could provide support for an upscale growing cluster. It appears possible that this could initiate as early as midday across parts of Louisiana, before progressing across parts of southern Mississippi and Alabama by Monday evening, accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts with a developing surface cold pool. ...Northwest into North Central Texas... Although uncertainty lingers concerning the strength of mid-level inhibition, a weak developing surface low, near the intersection of the stalled surface front and dryline, may provide the focus for intense thunderstorm development late Monday afternoon and evening. Mixed-layer CAPE is forecast to become quite large, with more than sufficient deep-layer shear to support a supercell or two capable of producing large hail. Depending on the degree of upscale growth, a tornado may not be out of the question, as a modest southerly low-level jet develops toward evening. Otherwise, activity may be accompanied by increasing risk for strong surface gusts before waning late Monday evening. ...Texas Panhandle into Colorado Front Range... Models continue to indicate that boundary-layer destabilization will remain confined to a narrow corridor, along a remnant surface front into the higher terrain, as a lead short wave impulse emerges from the Great Basin. Still, this environment may become favorable for a period of isolated to widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorm development, before convection tends to advect off and away from the higher terrain. ..Kerr.. 06/11/2023
