SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST... UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT INTO NWRN ONTARIO BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BROAD HEIGHT RISES WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY. DESPITE THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ALOFT...STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION OVER THE MID MO VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. ...CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST... SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...THE CONTINUATION OF LATE DAY1 THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES...AIDED IN PART BY LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ. LATEST THINKING IS REMNANTS OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE EWD BY LATE MORNING POSSIBLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE MO RIVER BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTRIBUTE TO RENEWED DEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IA/NRN MO. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO PROVE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEEP ROTATION. HOWEVER STRONG MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTENSE HEATING ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS SHOULD REMOVE CAPPING SUCH THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR DRY LINE/OLD SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION. LATEST NAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOULD ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH FOR WEAK HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. ...NRN PLAINS... WHILE WEAK UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS MONDAY...SCT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN MT/WRN DAKOTAS BY 23Z AS SFC TEMPERATURES RISE TO CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. WITH MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30KT AND VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. A SECONDARY LLJ IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ACROSS WRN ND BY 25/00Z AND THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE AN MCS COULD EVOLVE WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE. SUBSEQUENT ESEWD PROPAGATION WOULD ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO CNTRL ND/NCNTRL SD AFTER DARK. ..DARROW.. 06/23/2013
via SPC Forecast Products http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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