SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong to damaging winds will be possible today and tonight from parts of the central Gulf Coast to the Florida Peninsula. ...Central Gulf Coast to Florida... An upper trough/low should be centered over the ArkLaTex vicinity later this morning, with an associated 50-60+ kt mid-level jet over much of the lower MS Valley. This upper trough/low will move eastward through the day, eventually reaching the central Gulf Coast states late tonight. At the surface, a weak low should similarly translate eastward across the lower MS Valley in tandem with the upper low. Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of southern LA/MS. The low-level airmass over this region should only be marginally supportive of surface-based storms. But, there will probably be sufficient instability in combination with strong deep-layer shear for storm organization. Isolated damaging winds and a brief tornado or two should be the main threats for a couple of hours at the start of the period (12-14Z), before convection generally moves offshore. Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with storms advancing eastward across coastal portions of AL and the FL Panhandle through the afternoon. However, most guidance suggests the better low-level moisture and related instability will remain offshore. A large mass of convection is forecast to move from the central to eastern Gulf of Mexico through the day. This activity should approach the FL Gulf Coast by this evening. Low-level moisture will return northward over much of the FL Peninsula today, and there should be adequate instability across the southern/central peninsula to maintain some intensity to these storms. Deep-layer shear also appears strong enough for updraft organization. Given a probable linear/cluster mode, isolated damaging winds should be the main threat as storms move eastward across the FL Peninsula this evening/tonight. A brief, embedded tornado also appears possible, but the low-level flow is forecast to remain rather weak. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/15/2022
