SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Tue Mar 15 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat is expected across parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... While an upper trough digs gradually southeastward across the Intermountain West on Wednesday, an upper low is forecast to move steadily east-northeastward across the southeastern states, weakening with time and reaching the western Carolinas by 17/12Z. At the surface, a cold front accompanying the western trough is forecast to advance eastward across the northern and central Plains, and southward across the southern Rockies/southwestern states. By the end of the period, the front should stretch from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward to West Texas. Meanwhile in the Southeast, only a very weak surface reflection of the upper system is anticipated. A weak low near the central Gulf Coast at the start of the period is forecast to drift northeastward with time, roughly in tandem with the upper system. As this occurs, a somewhat ill-defined warm front will shift northeastward across northern Florida into southern and central Georgia. Overnight, the warm front will shift into/across the Carolinas, while a diffuse cold front extends westward from the low across the central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...The Southeast... A moist boundary layer -- but weak low-level lapse rates -- are forecast to prevail across most of the Southeast Wednesday. Some cooling aloft with the upper system will result in modest steepening of mid-level lapse rates, which -- along with diurnal heating, will permit some afternoon destabilization. As such, an increase in shower/thunderstorm activity is forecast through peak heating across the area. Moderately strong mid-level southwesterlies (generally 45 to 55 kt) will overspread the area as the upper low advances, allowing a few storms to organize through the afternoon. However, with the weak surface low anticipated, surface winds will likewise remain weak for the most part. This should limit potential for low-level rotation, especially away from backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the warm front. With tornado potential therefore fairly low, and hail risk also likely marginal given overall modest lapse rates away from the upper low itself, gusty winds will likely be the primary severe risk. Still, wind potential should remain confined to a few of the stronger afternoon storms, as the weak background low-level flow and little indication of substantial potential for upscale linear growth of storms should preclude more widespread potential. ..Goss.. 03/15/2022
