Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Consistency between global models, regarding their depiction of the synoptic-scale pattern over the U.S., deteriorates rapidly/substantially with time, during the medium-range period. The divergence in solutions manifests initially during Day 5/Sunday -- initially over the West Coast with progression of an eastern Pacific low/trough. The divergence then increases/expands with time, to the point where by the end of day 7, the GFS depicts a mature surface cyclone entering western Ohio and a trailing cold front across the Mid South/central Gulf Coast region, while the ECMWF places the low -- though similarly mature -- over western Oklahoma. Given this unusually large spread in solutions, which is particularly highlighted in the increase evident in standard-deviation fields within GEFS output through time, during the medium-range period, no severe weather assessment is being offered beyond Day 5/Sunday at this time. In the Day 4-5 time frame, the upper pattern will likely remain characterized by maintenance of broad cyclonic flow over the eastern U.S., and upstream ridging over western and central portions of the country in advance of the aforementioned eastern Pacific trough. With surface high pressure prevailing as far south as the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of prior cold frontal intrusion(s), severe convective potential east of the Rockies will likely remain muted to non-existent.
