SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Wed Mar 23 2022 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible mainly this evening across the western Carolinas into southern parts of Virginia. An isolated risk for a tornado and damaging gusts will extend from north Florida northward through the Carolinas and Virginia, and in a separate area in the upper Ohio Valley this evening. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this evening shows an elongated trough over the Great Lakes south-southwestward to the TX coast. Several disturbances will rotate through the larger-scale trough while maintaining southwesterly mid-level flow from the eastern Gulf of Mexico northward into the Mid-Atlantic states. ...Southeast... The northern rim of richer low-level moisture, characterized by low to mid 60s deg F dewpoints, will continue to advect north into parts of western NC and southern VA to the south of a wedge front over central VA early this evening. It appears recent thunderstorm development near the higher terrain of the western Carolinas may be partly due to the southern fringe of large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the OH Valley mid-level wave. Although buoyancy is not large, sufficient MLCAPE (500 J/kg) amidst enlarged low-level hodographs beneath 100+ kt southwesterly 300 mb flow, will support a risk for a couple of tornadoes mainly this evening. Farther southeast over the Carolinas into north FL, model guidance indicates isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight ahead of a disturbance moving from the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley late tonight. A nebulous scenario seemingly exists regard to storm placement but will maintain low severe probabilities to account for this conditional/uncertain scenario. ...Upper OH Valley... Ongoing strong to severe thunderstorms over WV northward into eastern OH will continue to progress northeastward this evening in association with a mid-level disturbance over the OH Valley forecast to move into the lower Great Lakes later tonight while weakening. A narrowing window of opportunity for severe appears over eastern OH/WV/southwest PA this evening as storms move into a less unstable/drier low-level airmass. However, very strong low to mid-level wind fields will support a risk for a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms through mid evening before this activity diminishes by the early overnight. ..Smith.. 03/24/2022
