SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 24 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER...AND THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible through midday over parts of the Mid-Atlantic region, and primarily during the afternoon over parts of northern/eastern Florida. ...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas... An intense 500 mb speed max (110 kt) embedded within a larger-scale MS Valley trough, will quickly move from AL northeast to the Mid-Atlantic states during the day. Only weak surface low development is forecast near the remnants of a wedge front over the Mid-Atlantic states as the low moves to near the southern New England coast overnight. A weakly unstable airmass will reside to the south of the wedge front and east of the primary synoptic front that will push east across the region during the day. It seems the risk for a few strong storms will likely focus during the morning. Uncertainty in both surface-based storm coverage (likely isolated at best) and the magnitude of buoyancy will likely limit the overall risk. Nonetheless, forecast soundings for southeast VA into NC show enlarged and elongated hodographs during the morning. Will maintain low severe probabilities this forecast. ...FL Peninsula... Farther south over north FL during the morning, the effective surface boundary will gradually shift southeast across the northern half of the peninsula during the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near and behind the boundary during the morning will likely give way to widely scattered diurnal storms developing over the central portion of the peninsula during the afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/24/2022
