SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the Southeast on Wednesday. The severe thunderstorm risk appears relatively low at this time. ...Synopsis... A longwave upper trough is expected to cover much of the CONUS again on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the OH/TN Valley region Wednesday morning to offshore of New England by evening. Upstream, one or more low-amplitude vorticity maxima may emerge out of the Southwest and impact parts of the Southern Plains and Southeast through the period. At the surface, a nearly stationary front is expected to remain in place from the northwest Gulf of Mexico northeastward into portions of the Carolinas. ...Southeast... Scattered thunderstorms are again possible over parts of the Southeast on Wednesday. Much of this activity may be elevated to the north of the front, but a few storms may become rooted near the surface along and south of the boundary within a moist and weakly capped environment. With strong midlevel southwesterly flow in place, effective shear for near-surface-based storms will likely support some storm organization. However, the northward extent of the surface boundary remains uncertain, and large-scale ascent may tend to weaken during the day as the midlevel trough initially over the OH/TN Valley region moves quickly away from the region, so the severe potential remains quite uncertain. Probabilities may eventually be needed for areas near the Gulf Coast once mesoscale details become clearer. ..Dean.. 03/07/2022
